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🛢️ Fuel bill
Good morning. Brace yourself, winter is coming. Heating oil bills are forecast to rise 21% (opens in a new tab) this season as global refinery disruptions and thinner exports from China squeeze supply. Northeast households that burn the stuff face a tab near $2.1K, even with milder weather on the way. Prices vary even within a state, so comparing dealers and sealing air leaks can soften the blow (opens in a new tab). With households already stretched thin, the thermostat is about to become yet another luxury.
Top Idea
SpaceX Is Dialing Into Telecom. Wall Street May Be Overreacting
Elon Musk has his sights set on your phone bill, and telecom investors aren't thrilled. SpaceX agreed to buy a nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio from Grain Management, bringing Starlink a step closer to becoming a mobile carrier. The prospect of Musk crashing another industry was enough to send telecom stocks tumbling across the US and Europe.
Sudden static: Low-band spectrum is valuable real estate for mobile carriers. Its signals travel farther and penetrate buildings better, making it essential for reliable coverage. SpaceX just snapped up as much as 14 MHz (opens in a new tab) of paired spectrum to add to its existing mid-band and high-band holdings. And Morgan Stanley thinks Musk's shopping spree may be far from over.
- Verizon, T-Mobile, and AT&T all took a hit, with Verizon heading for its worst trading day since 2002 (opens in a new tab).
- While telecom giants took a beating, satellite operators like Viasat rallied as investors bet (opens in a new tab) spectrum holdings could make them attractive takeover targets.
Starlink's Threat Has a Long Wait
Citi analyst Michael Rollins thinks Wall Street may be getting ahead of itself. He sees room for telecom stocks to recover (opens in a new tab) over the next year as customers keep their phones longer and switch carriers less often, helping cash flow and dividends. And he doesn't expect SpaceX to make a meaningful dent in the big three's results before 2029. Raymond James analyst Ric Prentiss agrees there's a long road ahead, with SpaceX still facing major hurdles to building a competitive network.
- Tower owners American Tower and Crown Castle rose 7% and 7.8% premarket on terrestrial infrastructure demand.
- Regulators cheered the competition, with over $100B of spectrum (opens in a new tab) expected to hit the market within two years.
Hold the phone: SpaceX isn't hiding its ambitions, either. Chief operating officer Gwynne Shotwell expects Starlink to take market share from the big carriers, and the company already has approval for 15K Gen2 satellites. But building a network that can actually compete will take years of launches, regulatory approvals, and ground infrastructure. For now, traditional carriers still have millions of customers paying their monthly bills.
Large-Cap Recap
OpenAI's Revenue Gap Puts Cloud Partners in Focus
OpenAI's revenue math has Wall Street reaching for a calculator. Its reported annualized revenue came in nearly $20B below an earlier figure, though the discrepancy stems from net accounting rather than missing sales. That hasn't stopped investors from questioning the billions its cloud partners are spending on the AI boom. Oracle is particularly exposed, with a $300B OpenAI deal making up nearly half its backlog as free cash flow runs negative. The concerns have also weighed on CoreWeave, Microsoft, and Amazon. [Read (opens in a new tab)]
Bank Insiders Aren't Buying the Dip Ahead of Earnings
Bank stocks are getting cheaper, but the people running them aren't rushing to buy. Just 298 financial-sector insiders purchased shares in Q3, the fewest since VerityData began tracking in 2004. Sellers outnumbered buyers by 2.51 to 1, with the sector's selling ratio running at more than twice its historical average. The caution comes as the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index has fallen over 13% from its mid-August peak. Investors will get a closer look at the sector when JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs report earnings on Oct. 13. [Read (opens in a new tab)]
Barclays Picks Its Next Defense Winners
Barclays is looking beyond fighter jets and missiles for its next defense picks, initiating coverage with six Overweight ratings. SpaceX leads with 58% potential upside, backed by Starship's potential to expand its launch advantage. Rocket Lab follows with 24% upside as it works toward larger launches with Neutron, though regular service is still unproven. Palantir also made the list, with its military AI and data analytics business drawing the bank's interest. [Read (opens in a new tab)]
Market Pulse
Humana Inc.
The health insurer’s shares jumped after emerging as a major beneficiary of 2027 Medicare Advantage star ratings, boosting expectations for future bonus payments.
Fastly, Inc.
The cloud computing company’s shares surged after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock, citing improving fundamentals and growing demand for its edge computing platform.
HP Inc.
The PC maker’s shares fell as broader concerns around the computer hardware market and cautious investor sentiment weighed on the stock.
Markets & Economy
Tariffs are driving up everyday goods prices: Roughly a third of the price effect came from US producers, who raised their own prices once imports got pricier. Consumers now expect 3.9% inflation a year out, the highest in over three years. [Read (opens in a new tab)]
Retail growth streak hits 12 months despite uneven demand: Electronics and appliances climbed 8.41% annually, leading every major category. Furniture was the lone decliner, down 2.7%. [Read (opens in a new tab)]
Chip equipment curbs move from warning letters to regulation: Lam Research expects China to fall below 30% of 2026 revenue. Applied Materials and KLA are also absorbing China-driven losses, and the affiliates rule returns automatically on Nov. 9 without action. [Read (opens in a new tab)]
Business & Tech
Netflix preps restructuring as growth questions mount: Netflix could eliminate about 800 jobs, with layoffs possibly starting Friday. Viewer engagement grew just 2% in the first half, putting pressure on the Oct. 20 report. [Read (opens in a new tab)]
Zuru's Mowbray weighs a bid for toymaker Mattel: Mattel is also attracting Authentic Brands Group, which previously floated $20 per share. Activist Ariel Investments wants a sale on the table as CEO Ynon Kreiz prepares to exit. [Read (opens in a new tab)]
Medicare's proposed 340B pay cut heads to court: HHS says the 340B program pushed hospitals to buy outpatient clinics to capture the reimbursement gap. Off-campus sites rose to over 34K in 2023. [Read (opens in a new tab)]
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Digit of the Day
Delta Cuts Its Profit Outlook as a $6B Fuel Bill Takes Off
Business is booming at Delta Air Lines, and so is the fuel bill. The Iran war is adding $6B (opens in a new tab) to the carrier’s 2026 costs, forcing a cut to its full-year profit forecast while travelers keep booking. Even the most profitable airline in the US can’t upgrade its way out of this one.
- Delta slashed its adjusted EPS outlook to $5.10–$5.60 (opens in a new tab) from $6.50–$7.50 in July — and logged its first earnings miss in two years.
- Meanwhile, premium cabins are doing the heavy lifting — revenue there rose 18% in Q3, outpacing the 12% rise in main cabin sales.
Exclusive club: Delta’s CEO says only three airlines are profitable this year, and the fuel bills explain the short guest list. Through August, US carriers racked up a $42.9B fuel tab (opens in a new tab), $13.2B above last year’s pace, despite burning slightly less. Deutsche Bank expects the industry to recover a smaller share of those costs in Q4, with full recovery not coming until early 2027. United, American, and Southwest report later this month, so we’ll soon see who else is on the list.
Strategize
The Buffett Indicator Is Flashing Red. Where Can New Investors Start?
The Buffett Indicator is hovering near historic highs, suggesting US stocks are expensive relative to the size of the economy. That's not a reason to avoid the market altogether, but it does make picking your first stocks a little trickier.
Why it matters: Even great companies can be bad investments if you pay too much for them. For beginners, the challenge is finding businesses with strong finances, room to grow, and prices that make sense, especially when the broader market looks expensive.
Ask Finks: What are 5 good stocks for beginners to consider buying in today's market? (opens in a new tab)
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