This winter, your heating bill comes down to one question: what heats your house? The US Energy Information Administration expects households that heat with oil to spend about $2,115 from November through March, 21% more than last winter.
The forecast landed in the agency's 2026-27 Winter Fuels Outlook, published Oct. 6 alongside the October Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Heating oil heats about 3% of US homes, most of them in the Northeast.
The price of heating oil is forecast to average 34% more this winter than last, and warmer Northeast temperatures only partly offset that.
Most households get better news. Homes on natural gas are forecast to spend about $640, down 9%, and propane homes about $1,246, down 3%.
Together, those two fuels cover roughly half of US households.
Electricity, the main heat source for more than 40% of homes, comes in at about $1,196, a 4% increase.
Tight distillate markets are the reason
Global production of distillate fuel, the category that includes heating oil, has dropped because of reduced global refining activity.
That pushed international prices up, making imports pricier and driving demand for American distillate exports.
US distillate exports increased 20% through the first seven months of 2026 versus the same stretch last year, with much of it heading to Europe.
Inventories are thin as a result. The agency expects fourth-quarter stocks to sit about 11% below the five-year average, while East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September.
Natural gas enters winter in the opposite position, with inventories 2% above the previous five-year average.
What oil-heat households can do before the cold hits
A major temperature drop is on the way for the Delaware Valley, and overall energy costs have jumped more than 20% over the past year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report.
Unlike regulated gas and electric rates, heating oil and propane prices pass through to customers within four to six weeks of a wholesale move.
Fuel dealers offer fixed-price plans that lock one price per gallon for the season, and capped-price plans that set a maximum price but let you pay less if prices drop.
Budget billing spreads the same total across the year rather than concentrating it in the coldest months.
We have covered the home-heating savings checklist before.
State-level numbers show how sharp the move has been. Massachusetts heating oil averaged $5.94 per gallon as of Nov. 9, 59% more than last year, while propane there averaged $3.99 per gallon.
The agency warned that a strong El Niño could push actual weather well away from its base case, which assumes national temperatures near last winter's.
Forecasts are updated throughout the winter with each Short-Term Energy Outlook release, so $2,115 is a starting point, not a settled bill.
