US import prices rose 1.1% in September, beating economists' expectations and accelerating from August's revised 0.5% increase
Energy did the heavy lifting. Imported fuel prices increased 4.8% for the month.
Strip fuel out and the picture still runs warm, with nonfuel import prices up 0.7% in September and 6.0% over the year.
Over 12 months, import prices climbed 8.1%, the largest annual gain since 2022.
Export prices rose 2.2% in September against a 0.9% consensus, and 11.6% over 12 months.
US Import and Export Prices, September 2026
| Measure | Sept 2026 M/M | Consensus M/M | 12-month change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import prices | +1.1% | +0.6% | +8.1% |
| Export prices | +2.2% | +0.9% | +11.6% |
| Imported fuel | +4.8% | ||
| Nonfuel imports | +0.7% | +6.0% | |
| Prior import (Aug) | +0.5% |
Three inflation reports in one week all came in hot
The trade data capped a run of hotter-than-expected inflation readings that included consumer and producer prices.
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.3% in September, the largest monthly advance since March 2022, with final demand energy up 10.8%.
Gasoline prices jumped 20.3%, driving wholesale prices to their highest level in nearly four years.
Consumer prices rose 3.7% in September, while the producer index gained 6.3% from a year earlier.
Import prices feed into the goods on store shelves before they ever show up in consumer inflation.
Bond markets are pricing a December hike
The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 5.12% on Friday, with traders assigning nearly a 77% chance of a 25 basis point hike in December.
Around 85% of market pricing points to a hold at the October meeting.
Fed Chair Warsh said the hotter-than-expected inflation data hasn't changed his assessment.
Yields have stayed above 5%, pushing mortgage rates toward 7.5% and raising the cost of every new home loan.
The 10-year reached 5.19% recently, with the war with Iran, elevated oil and diesel prices, and a federal deficit near $2T all adding pressure.
Energy-driven price gains squeeze household budgets while higher yields compete with stocks for capital.
October's data will show whether the fuel spike was a one-month jolt or the start of a longer run.
