The housing market logged its slowest month of resales in 16 years, and the borrowing relief homebuyers had started to get reversed course once the October numbers were already in. Existing-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75M in October, down 5.5% from September and 8.8% from a year ago, the slowest pace since August 2010, according to the National Association of Realtors.
September's pace was revised down to 3.97M, and October came in just above August 2010's 3.68M, when the market was still digging out of the crash.
The Midwest, South and West all lost ground month over month, while the Northeast held steady.
Separate from that October snapshot, rates rose 12 basis points on Thursday to 7.42%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
That snapped a four-week run of declines after October inflation came in hotter than expected, reversing an early-fall stretch when fixed rates crossed 7% and hit a three-year high of 7.40% on October 8.
Hale expected more homebuyers to come off the sidelines as rates eased.
Treasury yields, which mortgage rates track closely, have been climbing as investors question the Federal Reserve's progress on inflation.
Buyers finally have choices
Total housing inventory rose to 1.59M units, up 1.3% from September and 4.6% from October 2025.
That works out to a 5.1-month supply, the highest in 11 years, versus 4.4 months a year earlier and 4.7 months in September.
Homes are also sitting longer, with a median time on market of 35 days, up from 33 in September.
First-time buyers made up 29% of sales, down from 32% a year earlier, while cash buyers climbed to 29% of transactions.
Affordability keeps slipping, with the Housing Affordability Index at 100.7, down from 107.3 one year ago.
Homes for sale are piling up
Months of supply of existing homes, October 2025 to October 2026
Bar chart. Oct 2025: Months of supply 4.40. Sep 2026: Months of supply 4.70. Oct 2026: Months of supply 5.10.
Source: National Association of Realtors, Nov. 12, 2026
Prices still aren't cracking
The median existing-home price rose 0.4% to $416,700, the 40th straight month of year-over-year gains.
Sales fell annually across every price tier in October, including the $1M-and-up segment that had held up until now.
Sellers who need to move are discounting instead of waiting, and NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said homes sitting more than 60 days require a 9% discount.
With supply and demand cooling together, a broad price drop looks unlikely.
Distressed sales remain at 2% of all transactions, so there's no wave of forced selling to reset prices.
Yun argues that rates under 7% could unlock pent-up demand given steady job growth.
Sturtevant sees it differently, warning that 2026 may close with fewer than 4M existing-home sales for the first time since the 1990s.
For buyers, the math has two sides: more homes to choose from than at any point since 2019, and higher monthly payments than a week ago. If you are buying, push for a price cut or seller-paid closing costs, and lock the rate once you have a deal.
