Fertilizer Prices Crash Over 30% as Iran War Risk Premium Withers Away
Talk about a market that’s gone to seed — in a good way for shoppers. Urea prices have plunged more than 30% since mid-April, erasing the Iran-war spike and dragging corn, wheat, and other crop prices lower. The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index has fallen to its lowest level since Mar. 5, reversing the surge that followed disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and fears over global fertilizer supplies.
- China eased export restrictions, South Asian producers restarted output, and the Northern Hemisphere planting season wound down, helping cool fertilizer prices.
- Crop prices have fallen about 10% from their mid-May peak as strong US harvests and ample global stockpiles boost supply.
The next yield: Bloomberg Intelligence expects urea prices to firm as Brazilian buyers return in July. Fertilizer producers like Nutrien, Mosaic, and CF Industries could face pressure if prices stay low, while Tyson Foods and Pilgrim's Pride may benefit from cheaper feed costs. Still, Michigan State food economist David Ortega believes it’s too soon for an all-clear, noting, “The market correction is good news, but I’d be careful about treating it as the end of the story.”
