Nitrogen Prices Surge 50% as Strait of Hormuz Choke Rattles Fertilizer Markets

Crops just picked up a costly new sidekick. The Iran war has choked the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for roughly a third of global fertilizer trade, sending nitrogen prices up as much as 50% since the conflict began. As supplies tighten, the pressure is now spilling into markets, where Wall Street is already separating the winners from the wilters.

• CF IndustriesCF
  is riding the surge, up 61% YTD as cheap US natural gas boosts margins, though Morgan Stanley’s Vincent Andrews warns near-term moves depend on Iran news.
• Conversely, MosaicMOS
  has slumped 16% since tensions flared, squeezed by pricier sulfur and ammonia inputs that are eating into phosphate margins.

The trickle-down: Higher input costs are pushing farmers to maximize output, which could drive demand for CortevaCTVA

seeds and AGCOAGCO

precision upgrade tech. That pressure then moves downstream, where Tyson FoodsTSN

may take a hit as pricier feed corn adds to stress in its already struggling beef business. As Mizuho’s Edlain Rodriguez put it, “While it’s thrilling to be on the roller coaster, knowing when to get off is also part of the adventure.”