Mining companies don't dig anything without first buying machines. The companies that sell those machines report their numbers before the mines themselves show results, which makes their order books an early read on the industry. Three weeks of earnings just delivered the same message from all of them.
Epiroc's second-largest order ever
Sweden's Epiroc.ST) booked a $61.4M (SEK 610M) order from MMG for the expansion of the Khoemacau Copper Mine in Botswana, its second-largest equipment order ever. Total large equipment orders hit $79.6M (SEK 790M), up from $47.3M (SEK 470M) a year earlier. Interest in Epiroc's new diesel-electric solutions kept strengthening.
Mining customers made up 83% of group orders received in the quarter, up from 78%. Group orders rose 15% to $1.76B (SEK 17.5B), with an organic increase of 12%.
Caterpillar and FLSmidth confirm the trend
Caterpillar reported third-quarter sales and revenues of $20.7B, a 17% increase from $17.6B a year earlier, with its Resource Industries segment up 15% and Power and Energy up 18%. Chairman and CEO Joe Creed pointed to strong order rates and a record backlog.
Danish supplier FLSmidth capped the run on Nov. 11, with total order intake up 36% against the same quarter of 2025 and organic growth of 32%. Its Products business benefited from two large orders, and the company raised its full-year margin guidance to ~16.5%. Its Q3 adjusted EBITA margin was 16.3%, up from 15.3% in the same quarter of 2025.
Mining Equipment Demand Accelerated In The Third Quarter
Growth in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025, %
Bar chart. % change. Epiroc: Growth (%) 15%. FLSmidth: Growth (%) 36%. Caterpillar: Growth (%) 17%.
Source: Source: Epiroc, Caterpillar, FLSmidth
Why copper sits behind the spending
Copper carries electricity, so almost every part of electrification uses it, from wiring to batteries to data centers. BloombergNEF's Transition Metals Outlook 2026 says the industry needs $332B in new mine investment to avoid a shortage starting in 2028, with demand growing 34% by 2035. BNEF expects the deficit to widen to 3M tonnes, about 8% of consumption, by that year, even as refined metal production outpaces demand over the next two years.
Supply can't respond quickly. New copper mines need an average of 17 years before they reach production, and ore grades keep declining. Lengthy permitting processes stretch the wait further.
Spending has been catching up slowly. Mining capital expenditure reached $194B in 2025, still ~25% below the $259B spent at the 2012 peak, according to McKinsey. The same report puts the mining and processing capital needed between 2025 and 2035 at $2.2T, with copper alone accounting for 35% and annual spending climbing from $194B to $248B.
Mining Capital Spending Still Trails The Last Boom
Annual mining capital expenditure, $B: 2012 and 2025 actuals, 2035 McKinsey estimate
Line chart. Annual mining capex, $B. 2012: Annual capex ($B) $259. 2025: Annual capex ($B) $194. 2035: Annual capex ($B) $248.
Source: McKinsey State of the Industry 2026
Replacement demand keeps the cycle running
McKinsey declines to call this a supercycle, describing the current market as increasingly bifurcated, with gold and other precious metals supplying just over half of the industry's roughly $1.2T EBITDA pool. Equipment demand doesn't depend on that debate. Gold miners face pressures of their own: across ten gold projects McKinsey tracked, capex estimates rose between 25% and 194% from 2020 to 2025, and four more than doubled.
Asked about the mix behind her order book, Epiroc President and CEO Helena Hedblom said the split hasn't changed.
Replacement orders arrive whether or not miners approve new projects, because worn fleets stop working. That half of the book separates equipment suppliers from the miners themselves, whose earnings swing with metal prices.
Service is becoming the steadier half of the business too. Epiroc's service orders grew 13% organically, driven by midlife rebuilds and digital tools for automation and safety, and aftermarket work made up 67% of revenues.
The pipeline points in the same direction. Hedblom described a strong tender pipeline weighted toward copper for the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2027, covering greenfield projects, expansions of existing mines, and fleet replacement. Underground equipment demand was especially strong in the quarter, with many surface tenders still in the pipeline.
The constraint is no longer money. McKinsey projects a net increase of about 250K full-time mining positions needed globally by 2035 and a US skilled-labor gap of 200K to 300K over the next five years.
