Active home listings rose 7.4% year over year in October, the fastest annual growth in eight months, according to Realtor.com. Zillow's wider inventory count was 3.4% higher.
The pile-up didn't come from sellers rushing in. New listings fell at the steepest pace since September 2023, so inventory grew because buyers stopped showing up.
Mortgage rates did the damage. Rates averaged 7.33% in October, up from 6.86% in September and 107 basis points above a year earlier.
Zillow's count of newly pending listings, which tracks homes going under contract rather than closing, fell 16.8% from last October. That is the biggest annual drop since August 2023 and the slowest October since 2018.
Completed sales fell 8.7% year over year in Zillow's preliminary nowcast, a count that mostly reflects deals agreed in September, when rates were below 7%.
Mortgage demand has its own running tally.
Listings Piled Up While Buyers Walked Away
Year-over-year change, October 2026, %
Bar chart. Active inventory: YoY Change (%) 7.40%. New listings: YoY Change (%) -7.50%. Newly pending listings: YoY Change (%) -16.80%. Typical monthly mortgage payment: YoY Change (%) 12.80%.
Source: Active inventory and new listings: Realtor.com, Newly pending listings and typical monthly mortgage payment: Zillow
The payment math broke before prices did
The monthly payment on a typical US home reached $2,004 in October, assuming 20% down and excluding taxes and insurance, per Zillow.
That is up 12.8% from a year ago and 4.8% from September, the biggest one-month jump in four years.
Home values barely moved. The typical US home value fell 0.6% month over month and sits only 0.7% above last year, so nearly all of the payment increase came from rates.
Factor in taxes, insurance, and maintenance, and a median-income household would spend 41.5% of its income on that payment, up from 39.2% a year earlier.
Sellers are pausing rather than panicking
Price cuts held near last year's share in October and eased from September.
Delistings told the same story. Roughly 4.4% of active listings were pulled, versus 4.6% a year ago, with no sign of a spike.
The median list price was $415K, down 2.2% year over year and the 12th straight annual decline.
The standoff between listings and buyers has its own history.
Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, said the market is cooling on both sides in different ways, as buyers step back and sellers list less often without a broad increase in delistings or price cuts.
National supply is still below pre-pandemic norms, though the gap is the narrowest since the pandemic began, which matters for anyone waiting on bargaining power.
That combination leaves a market with more homes listed, fewer deals signed, and prices that haven't adjusted enough to offset a 7% mortgage.
For builders and lenders, the squeeze runs into winter. The pressure on builders has its own record.
Zillow's chief economist Mischa Fisher expects November to bring an even larger contraction before the slowdown eases, and sees deals to be had for buyers who can brave the affordability headwinds.
Renters are feeling the spillover too. The typical US rent is up 2.9% year over year, the strongest annual gain in 19 months, as would-be buyers stay put.
Whether spring 2027 thaws depends on one number, and it isn't the list price.
