Yttrium sells for about $1.15M a ton outside China against $9,144 inside, ~125x more, according to price reporting agency Argus Media.
The metal coats gas turbine and jet engine blades and lines semiconductor process chambers. It is one of seven heavy rare earths China placed under export licensing in April 2025.
Other controlled metals show the same split in milder form. Dysprosium runs about 20 times the Chinese domestic price, gallium about 12 times and terbium about 8 times. Before the curbs, global prices sat only marginally above Chinese ones.
Yttrium Costs 125 Times More Outside China
Ex-China price as a multiple of Chinese domestic price, as of Nov. 10, 2026
Bar chart. Multiple of Chinese domestic price (x). Yttrium: Price Multiple 125. Dysprosium: Price Multiple 20. Gallium: Price Multiple 12. Terbium: Price Multiple 8.
Source: Argus Media via Bloomberg
China accounted for 60% of global mined production of magnet rare earths in 2024 and more than 90% of refined output, per the International Energy Agency. Digging ore is not the hard part: concentrates can be made in several countries, but turning them into separated, high-purity oxide is where the queue forms.
The replacement supply is still years away
MP Materials is commissioning its heavy separation facility, with commercial dysprosium and terbium output expected this quarter. Third-quarter revenue jumped 176% year over year to roughly $148M. Selling heavy rare earth material out of inventory to a US aerospace and defense buyer added about $32M in the quarter. A second US magnet plant, the 10X facility, is not due to enter commissioning until late 2028.
Lynas Rare Earths already separates dysprosium and terbium in Malaysia, the only commercial heavy separator outside China. Its own guidance puts first yttrium production in early calendar 2028, and the budget for that Malaysian expansion has climbed to nearly A$294M from A$180M.
Energy Fuels pushed an earlier end-2026 commercial target into 2027, with fourth-quarter 2027 commissioning of its dysprosium and terbium circuits at White Mesa.
None of those schedules puts separated yttrium into Western supply chains before 2028.
The squeeze shows up in customs data
China shipped 4 tons of yttrium oxide to Japan in September 2026, against 51 tons in September 2025. January through September came to 18 tons versus 888 tons a year earlier.
China's total yttrium oxide exports are running at about two-fifths of the 2023 to 2024 average, with US shipments roughly 70% below pre-2025 levels.
Buyers are chasing whatever stock still exists outside China, most of it accumulated before the restrictions landed. How much sits in warehouses is unknown, and some traders may be holding material back in anticipation of even higher prices.
Two dates frame the next move. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen next week, and China's two-month suspension of some export controls runs to Jan. 10, 2027.
Commissioning announcements and first-production claims are not the same thing as tons delivered and accepted by a customer. The premium is measurable today, and Project Blue research director David Merriman expects the gap between Chinese and ex-China pricing to persist for at least a couple more years.
