Business

Retail Sales Rebound Despite Higher Rates

Market Watch
By Rhea Lobo
Retail Sales Rebound Despite Higher Rates

US shoppers snapped retail spending out of its summer dip. Sales jumped 1.2% in August, beating forecasts and reversing July’s decline.

The rebound arrived on the same day the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark overnight rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.

Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation, so higher gasoline prices gave the headline figure a boost. Fuel was not doing all the work, though, as online sellers, restaurants, electronics stores, clothing shops, and auto dealers also posted gains.

Shoppers spread it around

Retail sales reached $773.9B in August, easily clearing expectations for a 0.8% increase.

Control-group sales, which feed directly into gross domestic product calculations, climbed about 1.4%. The broader measure showed consumers were still spending with force even as prices and borrowing costs moved higher.

Nonstore retailers delivered one of the strongest category gains. Amazon.com’s decision to hold Prime Day earlier in 2026 had pulled sales forward, leaving room for online spending to rebound in August.

Bank of America card activity pointed in the same direction, with credit and debit card spending per household recovering after a July decline.

Inflation takes its cut

Consumers kept buying even as confidence fell again. That gap suggests households have not stopped spending, but they feel increasingly uneasy about what comes next.

Regular gasoline reached an average of $4.37 a gallon Wednesday, while diesel climbed even faster. Because diesel powers shipping and production, those increases can spread well beyond the pump.

Macy’s received $116M in tariff refunds, giving the retailer room to ease some of that pressure. CEO Tony Spring said part of the money is being used to lower furniture and fine-jewelry prices.

Fuel costs could test that willingness by taking a larger bite out of household budgets. Although 12 of 13 retail categories grew in August, inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings fell for a fifth consecutive month.

Import prices also rose more than expected after consumer inflation accelerated in August. Shoppers are still carrying the economy, but their money is buying less.

That leaves investors with a double-edged signal. Strong consumption supports growth and corporate revenue, but it also gives the Fed more reason to keep tightening if inflation refuses to break.

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