The Three-Way AI IPO Race Has a Capital Problem
OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 (a draft registration document filed with regulators before a public offering) to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this week, targeting a valuation of up to $1T in a stock market debut that could arrive as early as September.
The filing looks like a straightforward initial public offering (IPO) announcement, but the reality is more complicated. The company isn't profitable, has committed to staggering spending obligations, and is third in line behind two competing listings. The real story is what OpenAI is racing to fix before it opens its books to public investors.
The financial picture heading into the IPO
OpenAI generated $2B in monthly revenue as of March 2026. That's up from ~$1B in quarterly revenue at the end of 2024. Despite that trajectory, the company told investors during its most recent fundraising round that it doesn't expect to reach profitability until 2030.
OpenAI has also committed to roughly $1.4T in spending through cloud-computing and chip agreements with partners including Microsoft, Oracle, CoreWeave, and Advanced Micro Devices. OpenAI's own CFO, Sarah Friar, reportedly questioned whether the company would be ready to list this year, per DealBook.
ChatGPT is being rebuilt before the listing
Before it goes public, OpenAI is preparing what the Financial Times describes as the biggest ChatGPT overhaul since the chatbot's 2022 launch.
The plan is to transform it into a "superapp" combining AI agents and coding tools, steering users away from the free chatbot and toward higher-margin products. One senior employee put it directly: "Chat is dead."
Business customers currently account for ~40% of OpenAI's revenue. The company expects that share to climb to 50% by year-end. OpenAI's Codex coding product grew its weekly active user base sixfold to more than 5M users after launching a desktop app in February.
Jenny Xiao, a partner at Leonis Capital and former OpenAI researcher, described the broader shift: "Now the two are converging, because both of them are trying to aim for an IPO and investors care more about money than dreams."
Three AI giants, one investor pool
OpenAI isn't alone in heading to market. SpaceX filed for what would rank as the largest IPO in history, pursuing a ~$75B offering at a $1.75T valuation.
Anthropic filed confidentially on June 1 after raising $65B in a funding round that valued it at $965B. That put Anthropic's valuation above OpenAI's $852B post-money figure (the company's worth after its latest investment round) from its last round.
All three could debut before year-end. "What OpenAI does not want is for the public market capital to exhaust itself," said Gil Luria, managing director at D.A. Davidson.
Global IPOs have raised $87.5B through May 26, the highest level since 2021. Some bearish retail investors view all three listings as marking "the actual top" of the stock market, according to Ivan Cosovic of Breakout Point.
"The consumer AI ecosystem is a must-win for OpenAI if it is ever to justify a $1T+ valuation, and I continue to think that this is very far from a foregone conclusion," said independent analyst Richard Windsor, writing on the Radio Free Mobile blog.
