MarketsJun 21, 2026
The Peace Deal Is Signed, but the Recovery Is Far From Guaranteed
Rhea Lobo
The Strait of Hormuz may be open on paper, but implementation is already hitting rough waters. Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran on June 17 to end the conflict, but second-day negotiations have already exposed fresh disagreements over sanctions relief and shipping access, highlighting how fragile the deal remains.
T&C applied: The memorandum extends the existing ceasefire by 60 days, giving the US and Iran time to negotiate restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear program. During that period, Iran will allow commercial vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz free of charge, with shipping expected to resume within 30 days. In exchange, the US will lift sanctions and begin dismantling its naval blockade.
The deal may have eased fears, but normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains far from restored. As of Thursday, just under a dozen ships per day were transiting the waterway, compared with more than 100 before the war, as sea mines, elevated insurance costs, and unclear passage protocols continue to limit traffic. Oil production has also yet to recover, with Middle Eastern producers pumping about 11M fewer barrels of crude per day in May than before the war.
The waters ahead: If the peace holds, lower oil prices and falling Treasury yields could support the next leg higher for equities, with tech and reindustrialization stocks expected to lead. The outlook is less straightforward for energy. Kpler analysts caution that reopening the strait does not guarantee a recovery. The next phase now hinges on whether ongoing US-Iran negotiations can turn the memorandum into sustained shipping flows and oil exports.
