The GLP-1 Race Is Expanding Beyond Injections and Into Medicare
Novo Nordisk surpassed 3M US prescriptions for its Wegovy obesity pill since launching in January.
Both companies made competing presentations at the American Diabetes Association Scientific Sessions in New Orleans this weekend. Medicare coverage of GLP-1 obesity drugs is set to begin July 1 at $50 a month for millions of seniors.
More than 80% of new prescriptions for the Wegovy pill went to patients who had never previously used a GLP-1 drug. That suggests the oral version is expanding the market rather than pulling patients away from existing injectable therapies.
The pill cleared 1M prescriptions 12 weeks after launch, then added another 2M over the following 10 weeks, per The Wall Street Journal.
Novo CEO Mike Doustdar told CNBC the pace held even after Eli Lilly introduced its own pill in April.
"If that's not acceleration, then I don't know what is," Doustdar said.
Lilly CEO Dave Ricks said prescriptions of Foundayo are "markedly higher" than the 20K reported roughly six weeks ago, without disclosing a specific figure.
His pitch to seniors ahead of the July coverage launch is simple. "The main thing is, it's easy," Ricks said.
Foundayo can be taken at any time of day alongside food, water, and other medications. Novo's pill requires an empty stomach with a 30-minute fast afterward.
Doustdar countered by emphasizing Wegovy's label, which covers reduced risk of heart attacks, strokes, and kidney and liver complications. He argued those benefits should matter most to an older patient population.
Lilly's Next Drug Is the Bigger Story
Lilly's experimental triple agonist, retatrutide, generated the sharpest reaction at the conference.
Late-stage trial data showed patients lost an average of 28% of their body weight, per CNBC.
Nearly half lost more than 30%, a level Lilly compared to bariatric surgery outcomes. The drug also showed improvements in knee osteoarthritis and sleep apnea.
Lilly shares rose roughly 2.4% on Monday. Novo's US-listed shares fell 3.6%, per Barron's, which described Lilly as the meeting's clear winner according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh.
Goldman Sachs analyst Asad Haider told Barron's he expects Lilly to continue to dominate the GLP-1 market across current and next-generation therapies.
He pointed to manufacturing simplicity as a structural edge, noting that orforglipron, the molecule in Foundayo, is far easier to produce than Novo's semaglutide. The firm believes this will constrain Novo's ability to scale internationally.
Novo's next drug, CagriSema, is expected to receive an FDA approval decision in the fourth quarter of 2026, per CNBC.
Its weight-loss results have underwhelmed investors relative to Lilly's pipeline, though Doustdar has publicly committed to the launch.
Over the past year, Novo shares have fallen more than 40% while Lilly is up roughly 51%, according to Barron's.
The July Medicare launch will be the first major test of which pitch wins with seniors, convenience or a longer list of proven health benefits.
