Big Tech’s AI spending already looks massive, but the real tab is much higher. Nine major tech companies have nearly $3T in off-balance-sheet commitments tied to data centers and chip purchases, roughly triple their combined leases and long-term debt. Those commitments are also growing faster than traditional capex, which totaled about $600B over the past year.
- Uncommenced lease obligations have surged to $1.2T across the nine firms, with Meta alone carrying $347B in future commitments.
- Purchase commitments total another $1.9T, with Alphabet accounting for $811B, up from just $332B three months earlier.
The pressure isn't letting up: Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are on track to pour $1.5T into data centers through next year, while Amazon recently swung to $7.6B in negative free cash flow. Morgan Stanley says off-balance-sheet commitments are making true leverage harder to gauge, and LGF+ZEST estimates AI monetization must grow fivefold to thirteenfold to support current spending. Sooner or later, AI has to start picking up the tab.
