Americans filed 196K new unemployment claims in the week ended Sept. 12, down 10K from the previous week.
Initial claims fell to their lowest point since mid-July, defying forecasts for an increase.
The four-week average slipped to 203.3K, reinforcing a broader picture of limited layoffs across the economy. Continuing claims dropped by 39K to 1.7M in the week ended Sept. 5, their lowest level since January 2024.
The Fed has room to stay focused on inflation
The figures arrived one day after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since July 2023, lifting its benchmark range to 3.8% to 4.0%.
A resilient labor market could give policymakers more room to keep tightening as they work to contain inflation.
Labor Day may have amplified the weekly decline because shifting holidays can complicate seasonal adjustments. The broader trend remains steady, with the four-week claims average changing little between the August and September payroll survey periods.
Employers added 162K jobs in August after hiring weakened sharply over the previous three months.
The unemployment rate held at 4.1% in August, supported by limited layoffs and a smaller labor force.
AI may be weakening hiring before layoffs rise
Low unemployment masks a tougher job market for workers, particularly in white-collar roles most exposed to artificial intelligence.
Researchers Sania Edlich and Torsten Slok found that AI-exposed occupations recorded slower wage growth over three years, even as overall employment remained steady.
Real wage growth in the most exposed roles has fallen 6.7% since 2023, with lower earners facing the greatest pressure.
Hiring among workers ages 22 to 25 has dropped by a third since 2021 in jobs at greater risk of AI substitution, according to Liminal Capital. The pattern suggests companies are reducing openings and limiting pay increases before resorting to layoffs.
Housing is adding another strain. Single-family building permits fell 1.8% in August, while 30-year mortgage rates reached 7%. Layoffs remain low, but access to jobs and stronger pay is narrowing across the economy.
