Liquefied natural gas, or gas chilled into liquid form so ships can carry it across oceans, moves through a handful of chokepoints. The war in the Middle East that broke out at the end of February 2026 effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carried almost 20% of global LNG supply. That chokepoint has been largely shut all year, and American exporters have been covering the gap since.
How big the supply hole is
LNG loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates fell by more than 60 bcm year over year from March to October. Between March and October, output elsewhere partly filled the hole: non-Gulf LNG production grew 14%, enough to cover about two-thirds of the drop in Gulf loadings.
Global LNG supply is now projected to fall 3% in 2026, the steepest annual decline on record. European storage entered the 2026/27 heating season unusually depleted, and IEA simulations show it could drop below 10% of working capacity by the end of March 2027 under colder-than-average weather and continued disruption to Hormuz LNG flows.
European TTF spot prices rose almost 70% year over year to an average near $20 per MMBtu between March and October. That's their highest since the 2022/23 energy crisis. The crude side of this war trade has its own story.
Venture Global cashes the tightness
Venture Global reported third quarter revenue of $4.8B, up 43% from a year earlier, with net income up 493% to $2.5B. The company exported 124 cargoes and sold 465.8 TBtu, a 25% volume increase.
Third quarter 2026 net income of the two largest US LNG exporters
Net income attributable to common stockholders, quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026, $B
Bar chart. Net income ($B). Venture Global: Net Income $2.5. Cheniere: Net Income $1.2.
Source: Venture Global, Cheniere
Management lifted full-year consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $10.0B to $10.3B, up from $8.7B to $9.1B. The raise assumes a liquefaction fee of $21 to $22 per MMBtu on remaining unsold cargoes, far above the $6.46 weighted average on its contracted 2026 volumes.
That gap between contracted and spot pricing is the entire story of 2026 earnings. Venture Global also commenced commercial operations at Plaquemines Phase 1 on Oct. 31, just over 53 months from the project's final investment decision.
Cheniere raises guidance a third time
Cheniere Energy exported a record 188 cargoes in the quarter and raised 2026 guidance for the third consecutive quarter, to adjusted EBITDA of $8.75B to $9.25B. Revenue reached $6.17B, up 39%, and the board increased the quarterly dividend by more than 12%.
Quarterly revenue of US LNG exporters, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026
Total revenue, $B
- Venture Global
- Cheniere
Line chart. Revenue ($B). Q3 2025: Venture Global $3.3, Cheniere $4.4. Q3 2026: Venture Global $4.8, Cheniere $6.2.
Source: Source: Venture Global, Cheniere
Chief financial officer Zach Davis said LNG netbacks for the balance of 2026 moved from more than $10 per MMBtu in August to more than $20 at the time of the call. Chief commercial officer Anatol Feygin said global LNG supply growth turned negative in the third quarter as constrained Hormuz flows outweighed production gains elsewhere.
Feygin also flagged the wide spread between long-term and spot cargoes. Longer-term Henry Hub-linked cargoes were loading at roughly $6 per MMBtu, while spot prices at times exceeded $30 per MMBtu.
What reverses the trade
The share of destination-flexible LNG contracts, meaning cargoes buyers can redirect to whichever market pays most, rose from 29% in 2016 to more than 50% in 2025. Asian buyers doubled their Atlantic Basin imports year over year from March to October, mostly from the US.
Flexibility is why US exporters captured the shock instead of simply riding it, and it ties the earnings premium to one variable.
A full reopening of the Strait brings Qatari and Emirati volumes back into a market where new projects in North America, Africa and Australia are already expected to add close to 50 bcm of supply in 2026. In mid-June, Washington and Tehran agreed on an interim deal that lays out a path to reopening the Strait, and carrier traffic has picked up since the announcement, though volumes remain a fraction of what they were before the conflict. Since March 2026, major liquefaction projects have reached final investment decisions, and the IEA puts the conflict's losses at 15% of the new LNG supply set to be added globally over the 2026-2030 period, keeping markets tighter than previously anticipated into 2027. Iran peace signals have their own oil market history.
