Energy prices sit underneath almost everything a household buys, from a tank of gas to a plane ticket. That makes a fast move in crude one of the few market events people feel directly. The move arrived this week.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 4.2% to $94.23 a barrel on Nov. 9. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, dropped 3.9% to $87.26.
Why traders stopped pricing the war
The slide followed Brent's 16% drop the prior week, its steepest since April 2020. President Donald Trump told CNN that further US strikes on Iran were "highly unlikely" if talks on Tehran's nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz progressed.
The conflict continues. Saudi Aramco's Riyadh administrative building took limited damage from an attempted attack, and a tanker was struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran's demands were outrageous and ridiculous, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said mediation had stalled after the midterms.
Supply is recovering anyway. JPMorgan estimated the global oil market had a surplus of 1.4M barrels per day in October, which means supply beat demand. The US-Iran peace talks have their own recent history.
Pump prices are the first payoff
Regular gasoline averaged $4.0093 nationally on Nov. 9. That is roughly 36 cents below the $4.3718 AAA recorded a month earlier and $0.94 above the $3.0699 it recorded a year ago. AAA said this is the first November with a national average above $4.
Diesel is different. It averaged $6.1723 the same day, close to the $6.5276 record set Sept. 22, because the supply of distillates, the fuels that include diesel, stays tight whatever crude does.
East Coast distillate inventories ran 32% below the five-year seasonal average in September, per the Energy Information Administration's October outlook. Freight costs depend on diesel, which is how those prices reach store shelves.
Line chart. $ per gallon. Nov. 2025: Gasoline Price ($/gal) $3.1. Oct. 2026: Gasoline Price ($/gal) $4.4. Nov. 9, 2026: Gasoline Price ($/gal) $4.
Airlines and cruise lines get a boost
Fuel is one of the highest costs for any business that moves people. Airline stocks extended a week-long rally on Monday, with JetBlue Airways ($JBLU) and United Airlines Holdings each up 7% and American Airlines Group up 6%.
Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Linenberg upgraded JetBlue to Buy on Nov. 5. He argued that airlines with the highest fixed costs and the most debt gain the most if fuel prices calm down. The airline fuel crisis has its own recent history.
Cruise operators got the same lift earlier in the month, with Carnival Corporation ($CCL) climbing alongside Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings.
Carnival buys fuel at market prices with no hedges, which are contracts that lock in a price ahead of time. Cheaper oil reaches its costs faster than at rivals, and it had already built a $150M fuel-price hit into its full-year guidance. Customer deposits reached a record $7.6B, and management says 2027 is already half booked. Royal Caribbean has locked in prices on 58% of its fourth-quarter fuel, which softens the move in both directions. Cruise lines' fuel exposure has its own recent history.
Shale's numbers lag the price drop
Producer earnings still reflect a quarter when WTI averaged $85.68, up from $64.95 a year earlier. EOG Resources posted net income of $2.78B, an 89% jump, and raised its dividend 8% to $1.10 a quarter.
EOG's production hit a record 1.433M barrels of oil equivalent per day, and net debt fell to $2.18B from $4.16B a year earlier.
APA Corporation ($APA) beat too, with adjusted earnings 32% above the $1.44 analysts expected and revenue of $2.812B. Management raised its full-year 2026 free cash flow forecast, which is the cash left after expenses and investment, to $2.9B, the third straight raise.
APA Keeps Raising Its 2026 Cash Flow Outlook
Full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance, $B, as of Nov. 9, 2026
Bar chart. Free cash flow guidance, $B. Q1 guidance: Free cash flow ($B) $2.2. Q2 guidance: Free cash flow ($B) $2.3. November guidance: Free cash flow ($B) $2.9.
Source: Earnings Whispers
The 2027 plan is harder. APA's early spending plan for finding and producing oil and gas is roughly $2.5B, compared with about $2.1B for 2026. It builds in Permian cost increases in the mid-single digits, while US and Egypt production are expected to stay flat.
Income from gas trading is set to fall to about $950M in 2027 from 2026 levels. Management points to the mid-to-high $800M range at current prices. Cheaper crude eases the pressure on consumers and squeezes producers whose last quarter looked spectacular.
