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The space stock sell-off that Bespoke Investment Group called a "violent crash" has wiped out nearly all of 2026's gains across 17 new-space names, with the median stock down 58% from its peak.
The Procure Space ETF peaked before the hype did. About two weeks later, SpaceX debuted at $135, surged above $225, and then reversed sharply. The stock now sits below its IPO price.
Ten of the 17 stocks in the basket have no year-to-date gain left. Fourteen have been cut in half from their highest 2026 close. The median stock in the group had climbed 134% at its peak this year.
SpaceX is making a costly transition at exactly the wrong moment for its stock. The company has stopped taking new Falcon 9 bookings for dedicated satellite launches beyond 2028 and paused its Falcon 9 rideshare reservations. It's also halted production of some non-reusable Falcon hardware, including the upper stage that carries cargo.
The pivot bets everything on Starship, which is still in testing. Starship Flight 13 (the rocket's third attempt in nine days after a July 16 engine abort and a weather scrub) was scheduled for late July, with a window opening at 6:45 p.m. EDT at Starbase, Texas.
The flight needed to complete a clean booster return to the Gulf of Mexico, deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites, and bring the Starship vehicle down in a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean.
"Starship becoming operational is the critical path to the SpaceX investment thesis."
Brian Gesuale, Raymond James
Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile dropped alongside SpaceX on Starship test days even though neither faces a company-specific catalyst. The selling looks like a sympathy trade tied to SpaceX's troubles. RKLB remains up 42% over the past year despite the recent slide while ASTS is essentially flat over that span, up just 0.4%.
SpaceX reports its first quarterly earnings as a public company on Aug. 4. Two days later, a lock-up expiration frees as many as 911.5M shares, roughly doubling the shares available to trade.
Short interest in SPCX has reportedly grown to 32%, and Tesla added pressure to Musk-linked stocks after missing earnings and posting negative cash flow for the first time in two years.
The technical picture offers little comfort. Every established stock in the space basket sits below its 50-day moving average. The median name is roughly 34% beneath it. Only one stock has dipped below the standard oversold threshold of 30 on the 14-day Relative Strength Index, suggesting the group may not be fully washed out yet.
A recovery would require SPCX to stop making new lows, build a sideways base, and break above it (none of which has happened).
