Futures markets expect a December rate increase, and Friday's report on the prices US producers charge is the last inflation reading before that decision.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October producer prices at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, Nov. 13. Economists expect final demand prices up 0.4% on the month, down from 1.3% in September, and 6.6% over 12 months, the biggest yearly rise since November 2022.
The yearly rate last ran that high in November 2022, at 7.4%.
The producer price index tracks what US businesses receive for the goods and services they sell, before those costs reach shoppers.
September set a high bar. Final demand jumped 1.3% on the month, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, and rose 6.3% from a year earlier.
Core prices, which leave out food and energy, climbed 0.7% in September and are expected to be 0.3% in October, according to the consensus compiled by Dow Jones.
Monthly Producer Price Gains Expected to Cool While the Yearly Rate Climbs
US PPI final demand, percent change, September 2026 actual vs October 2026 consensus as of Nov. 11, 2026
- Sep 2026 Actual
- Oct 2026 Consensus
Bar chart. Percent Change (%). Final demand (m/m): Sep 2026 Actual 1.30%, Oct 2026 Consensus 0.40%. Final demand ex food & energy (m/m): Sep 2026 Actual 0.70%, Oct 2026 Consensus 0.30%. Final demand (y/y): Sep 2026 Actual 6.30%, Oct 2026 Consensus 6.60%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, consensus compiled by Dow Jones
The monthly gain cools while the yearly rate climbs
A yearly rate is a chain of 12 monthly changes, and each report drops the same month a year earlier. October 2025 rose only 0.2% before seasonal adjustment.
Anything above that 0.2% pace lifts the annual figure above 6.3%. A flat month would leave it near 6.1%.
Energy explains the expected cooldown. Between the PPI's pricing days of Sept. 15 and Oct. 13, WTI crude fell 10.9% and Brent dropped about 3.8%.
September's surge leaned hard on that input. Energy prices rose 10.8% on the month, with gasoline jumping 20.3% and services prices up 0.8%.
One forecaster sees slightly more heat than the street. Continuum Economics expects the yearly rate to rise 6.7%, with core holding at 5.0%.
Why the Fed is watching this one
The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28, with two officials voting for a hike.
After Tuesday's hotter than expected consumer price report, CME Group's FedWatch tool put the odds of a quarter-point hike on Dec. 9 near 90%.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Nov. 10 that he leans toward a quarter-point move, and floated a half-point move if core consumer inflation ran 0.3% or higher. Core CPI came in at 0.3%.
Several PPI line items feed straight into the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred gauge. Economists pegged core PCE at 0.4% for October after the CPI, and Friday's data could shift that estimate. The BEA publishes October PCE on Nov. 25.
Supercore PPI, which strips out food, energy, and trade services, is the component markets will read closest, with a 0.25% consensus after 0.6% in September.
Healthcare, freight, and portfolio management fees sit inside that measure. Strength there would mean producer inflation has moved well beyond the gas pump heading into the holiday quarter.
