Climate Risk

The Hurricanes That Never Came Just Cost Companies Billions

By Christi Quinn
The Hurricanes That Never Came Just Cost Companies Billions

Owens Corning, one of the biggest makers of roofing shingles, saw net sales fall 7% to $2.5B on a second consecutive year of weak storm activity, and the one hurricane that did arrive still let a Florida insurer raise its guidance.

A crop-chemical maker cuts its outlook

American Vanguard, which makes pesticides and crop-protection chemicals for farmers, cut full-year sales guidance to a range of $500M to $530M, down from $530M to $550M. Its profit outlook (adjusted EBITDA) fell to $36M to $40M from $44M to $48M.

The pressure is global. International sales fell 17% in the quarter, with El Niño in Central America among the named causes alongside generic competition in Mexico. Diesel costs rose more than 40% in the quarter.

American Vanguard's International Sales Kept Shrinking

International sales growth by fiscal 2026 quarter, %

Line chart. Year-Over-Year Growth (%). Q1: International Sales Growth (%) -7%. Q2: International Sales Growth (%) -18%. Q3: International Sales Growth (%) -17%.

Source: Earnings Whispers

Why roofers need storms

Owens Corning says the shortfall is in residential roofing.

Roofing demand follows storm-driven repair cycles. A quiet season means fewer insurance claims, fewer roof replacements, and distributors working down inventory instead of reordering.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season was historically calm. Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measure of how much storm power a season produces, stood at 18 through Oct. 14 against a full-season average of 123, per Lloyd's Market Association underwriting director Matthew Bellamy.

Only One of These Three Grew Last Quarter

Third-quarter 2026 revenue growth vs year earlier, %

Bar chart. Revenue Growth (%). GMR Solutions: Revenue Growth (%) 5.90%. Owens Corning: Revenue Growth (%) -7%. American Vanguard: Revenue Growth (%) -9.20%.

Source: Company filings, Earnings Whispers

One storm still did damage

The season's first and only hurricane, Isaias, came ashore near Destin, Florida on Oct. 9 with Category 2 winds of 105 mph, the first US landfall since Milton in October 2024. Moody's RMS put insured losses at $2.5B to $4.5B, with a best estimate of $3.5B.

Slide Insurance, a Florida home insurer that sits right in the storm's path, still raised full-year net income guidance to a range of $500M to $520M, up from $455M to $470M. The new range already allows for up to $50M of pretax losses tied to Isaias in the fourth quarter.

Slide's combined ratio, the share of premiums eaten by claims and expenses, came in at 59.3% against 48.5% a year earlier. The insurance cycle has its own history with storms.

Operations built to absorb it

GMR Solutions runs air and ground ambulances, so bad weather grounds flights and revenue with them. Its weather cancellation rate for emergency air transports hit 15.7% in the quarter, up from 14.8% a year earlier.

Revenue still rose 5.9% to $1.6B, and the company guided full-year net revenue to $5.9B to $6.05B.

What the food side adds

The same story is playing out at the country level in farming. Peru declared a state of emergency over El Niño flooding, with more than 9M people at high risk of floods and landslides.

Philippine production of unmilled rice fell 18% in the three months to September. The war in Iran is lifting fuel and fertilizer costs on top of that, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization chief economist Maximo Torero. Food commodity prices have their own supply story.

The investor read-through

Owens Corning expects minimal price increases in the fourth quarter while input and delivery costs climb, and American Vanguard says its prices are not keeping up with freight costs.

The winners are the ones spending to stay open in bad weather: storm-rated roofs, hardened grids, and aircraft built to fly through it. Weather is now a cost line, and the companies that can price it keep their guidance.