Housing’s Long Winter May Finally Be Starting to Thaw
For two straight years, the housing market delivered a masterclass in disappointment. From falling sales to negative builder sentiment and rising rates that crushed the spring buying season, the sector remained firmly in the red. But the data is finally starting to argue back — and patient money has already noticed.
- For a second straight month in April, home prices edged higher — with property analytics firm Cotality forecasting annual price growth of 5.3% by 2027.
- Berkshire Hathaway also moved in, agreeing to acquire homebuilder Taylor Morrison in cash at a 24% premium — signaling a market bottom.
Reading the cycle: The acquisition wave extends beyond Berkshire. Japan’s Sumitomo Forestry recently closed a $4.5B deal to acquire Tri Pointe Homes, adding to a growing consolidation push. Even during the downcycle, all 17 homebuilders in the iShares Home Construction ETF remained profitable, and many now trade at forward multiples well below the market. Specifically, analysts point to M/I Homes, Toll Brothers, PulteGroup, and Century Communities as undervalued. That said, years of bad news have a funny way of making any good news stand out.
