Showrooms are starting to feel like reruns. Automakers are expected to redesign 9% of their lineup on average across the 2026-2028 model years, far below the 20-year average of 14%, per analyst John Murphy. The drought comes as US auto sales are already down roughly 2% this year, and the pipeline would look even thinner without GM’s pickup redesign.
- Carmakers canceled or delayed dozens of EV models, booking more than $70B in charges and impairments.
- Ford and GM have ceded share to Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai, which offer more hybrids and cheaper models.
Stalled out: Most fresh metal won’t arrive until 2028 and beyond, leaving what Murphy calls “a total stall for new products” just as the industry’s economics shift again. Washington has cut its 2031 fuel economy target to 34.9 mpg from 50.4 mpg, while Bain & Company sees US sales falling by 2M vehicles by 2040. So despite carmakers having more freedom over what to build, they have less room to get it wrong.
