BusinessJul 22, 2026
The Next Aviation Cycle Has Begun, but Boeing and Airbus Have Other Priorities
Aviation Supply
Rhea Lobo
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Commercial aviation is stuck in a strange moment. Demand for aircraft is strong, but neither of the two dominant planemakers can build jets fast enough to meet it. For investors, the investment case now hinges on who can deliver first.
Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg has been direct about the company's priorities. "Orders are not our challenge," Ortberg told reporters ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow. "Our challenge is getting these orders delivered."
Boeing is working through FAA certification of its 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 variants. Certification work on the MAX 7 is 95% complete, while the MAX 10 is 98% done, according to analyst research cited by CNBC.
The MAX 7 approval is expected "very shortly," per Ortberg, and Wall Street expects 670 Boeing deliveries in 2026.
Airbus is dealing with its own bottlenecks. Engine availability issues, particularly from Pratt & Whitney, forced it to adjust production plans.
Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said the situation has stabilized. Airbus delivered 190 A320-family aircraft in the second quarter, and analysts at Jefferies said that growing A320 delivery volume is expected to drive a significant improvement in earnings.
The production crunch isn't a short-term blip. British Airways CEO Sean Doyle said his airline is still waiting for Boeing's 777X widebody jet, which was originally scheduled for delivery in 2022.
Doyle told a panel at the Farnborough Air Show that delivery delays may persist for another four to five years, and that the aviation supply chain could remain under heavy regulatory pressure throughout that stretch.
The 777X is now expected to begin commercial service in the second quarter of 2027, according to Emirates President Tim Clark.
"The market's got to be ready. Right now, the customers are telling me, 'focus on your existing product line, we really want to see better maturity of the existing product line before we move to a new airplane.'"
Kelly Ortberg, Boeing
Ryanair, Boeing's largest customer outside the US, recently completed its current order of 737 MAX 8-200 jets.
That delivery helped Ryanair grow its fleet to just under 650 aircraft and expand first-quarter traffic by 6%. The airline expects passenger numbers to hit ~216 million this year.
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Both manufacturers are doing early work on next-generation narrow-body aircraft, the replacements for the 737 MAX and A320neo families.
Airbus has disclosed an internal project code, "eAction," and Faury has publicly targeted a program launch around 2030, with entry into service in the second half of the 2030s. Boeing says it needs another couple of years to repair its finances before committing to any new program.
The European Investment Bank recently committed to a €3B ($3.43B) loan package to Airbus, its largest-ever corporate loan. Boeing has asked the US government to press the EU for transparency on the loan, noting the announcement came just four days after the EU extended the existing tariff truce on aviation.
The subsidy dispute is a long-running one, both sides fought a 17-year battle at the World Trade Organization before agreeing a truce in 2021. That truce has been extended indefinitely.
RBC Capital Markets analysts said investors should stay focused on Boeing's ability to ramp 737 MAX and 787 production, complete pending certifications, improve margins, and generate cash. The same logic applies to Airbus: the primary concern is a clearer path to A320 and A350 production targets.
Airbus carries a backlog of over 9K aircrafts. Demand continues to outpace supply across both manufacturers. Boeing has invested ~$1B in a fourth 737 MAX production line in Everett, Washington, which would eventually allow output beyond the capacity of its three existing lines in Renton.
The next-generation aircraft battle will matter enormously when it arrives. For now, the sector's inflection depends on execution, certifications, delivery rates, and supply chains.
