Big Oil's political balancing act is getting a lot more lucrative. ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Occidental Petroleum are collectively set to earn ~$31B in Q2 2026 — up from ~$12B in the same period last year. The windfall comes as US crude averaged about $95 a barrel during the quarter.
- Chevron alone is expected to earn $10.7B this quarter after crude briefly peaked at $118.35 a barrel in March before a ceasefire cooled markets.
- Oil prices fell about 5% Tuesday as Iran discussed reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Goldman Sachs forecasting $80 Brent by year-end if the waterway fully reopens.
Political crossfire: Trump has ordered the Justice Department to investigate Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and BP over fuel prices, and White House aides are actively strategizing on gas prices ahead of midterms. Companies plan to absorb the criticism and point to record US production of ~13.8M barrels per day as evidence they're cooperating. Even so, executives aren't changing drilling plans, choosing shareholder returns over chasing higher output.
