With two job reports down and one more to go on Friday, the big picture remains: the US economy is still humming along. Firstly, Monday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report indicated a rise in hiring in February to 5.8M from 5.7M the month prior. Then, yesterday, ADP published private sector job data, showing a 184K increase in March payrolls — surpassing the median estimates of 150K.

• Wages surged by 10% for those switching jobs, the largest jump since last July — while those who stayed saw a 5.1% pay raise. Job switchers to sectors like construction, financial services, and manufacturing saw the highest growth.
• In ADP’s latest National Employment Report, Chief Economist Nela Richardson commented that, “Inflation has been cooling, but our data shows pay is heating up in both goods and services.”

The moment we’ve been waiting for… might not come as quickly as we’d like. “There’s really no urgency to adjust the rate,” given the economy’s strong growth, as per SF’s Fed President Mary Daly. While she expects three rate cuts this year, she also acknowledges “it’s a close call” for fewer cuts. Although the odds of rate cuts in May are nearly zero, investors are almost evenly split on potential cuts starting in June.