Travel is having one hell of a year. Bookings are climbing, companies are raising their outlooks, and travel stocks are beating the broader market. What started as a quiet trade has turned into a rally stretching across airlines, hotels, and the rest of the industry.
Demand holding despite real headwinds
Booking Holdings reported second-quarter profit of $1.95B and revenue of $7.35B, beating analyst estimates of $7.19B.
CEO Glenn Fogel said the underlying desire to travel remained resilient despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. The company reaffirmed full-year guidance for revenue to grow at a high-single-digit rate.
Expedia Group told a similar story. The company raised its full-year forecast for gross bookings to a range of $129.5B to $130.8B, up from a prior view of $127B to $129B.
CEO Ariane Gorin said domestic bookings outpaced cross-border travel, driven by the World Cup, concerts, and outdoor spending.
Both companies flagged that Middle East conflict has disrupted some international routes and pushed airfares higher. Each described the drag as manageable, with domestic demand more than picking up the slack.
Marriott keeps beating and raising
Marriott International has risen nearly 16% year to date, outpacing the S&P 500 in 2026. Analysts now expect the company to earn $11.71 per share this year and $13.11 in 2027, representing growth of roughly 17% and 12% respectively.
Two near-term catalysts add to the case. New long-term credit card agreements with JPMorgan Chase and American Express could add more than $100M in annual fees by 2028.
Analysts also see improving conditions in the Middle East as a tailwind, with consensus earnings estimates moving higher through the summer.
Marriott’s asset-light model gives it some protection when the economy slows, since it earns fees from franchised hotels instead of owning most properties itself.
It also plans to return more than $4.5B to shareholders through buybacks and dividends this year. At 27.5 times next year’s earnings, the stock sits below its five-year average, though it’s hardly a bargain.
The laggard finally breaks out
While Marriott, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, and Expedia compounded steadily, Airbnb sat out most of the rally.
Over the past three years, Booking is up 166% and Expedia is up 223%. Airbnb is up 59% over the same stretch. In 2024 the stock fell 3%. In 2025 it gained 3%.
That changed after Airbnb’s second-quarter results. Revenue climbed 17% to $3.61B, while adjusted EBITDA reached $1.3B and free cash flow jumped 30% to $1.25B.
The strong quarter prompted management to raise its full-year outlook for the second time, now calling for at least mid-teens revenue growth.
The AI efficiency story is also real here. Airbnb's AI assistant now handles support in more than 50 languages and resolves close to 45% of issues without a human agent. That drove customer support cost per booking down 16% year over year.
The stock gapped out of a multi-year base on heavy volume after the earnings release, moving from roughly $163 to $188. Diluted share count has dropped from 649M in mid-2024 to 597M today, supported by a $6B buyback authorization.
The stock is still roughly 14% below its February 2021 high while the business has more than doubled since then.
The one real risk across the sector
Qantas reported that net profit tumbled 19.7% in its most recent financial year as fuel costs surged 14.4%, directly tied to Middle East conflict pushing jet fuel prices higher. The airline said elevated fuel prices would persist through the July-December period.
For hotel and online travel companies, fuel costs flow through indirectly via higher airfares that can soften booking demand. Both Booking and Expedia flagged this dynamic. It is a risk the sector is managing, not escaping.
Valuation is the other check. Marriott at 27.5 times forward earnings is not expensive by historical standards, but it is not a bargain either.
Airbnb is repricing after years of underperformance, which means the easy money from the base breakout may already be in the stock. The fundamentals justify attention. The entry point still matters.