Target, Lowe's, and TJX all reported second-quarter earnings this week, and the results tell three different stories about where the American consumer actually stands.
Target finds its footing
Target posted its second straight quarter of comparable sales growth, beating Wall Street estimates by a wide margin.
The sales rebound was broad-based across all six of its major categories, with digital comparable sales jumping 8.7% and same-day delivery growing more than 25%.
CEO Michael Fiddelke raised full-year net sales growth guidance to roughly 5%, up one percentage point from prior guidance.
A large tariff refund boosted the bottom line. Target received a $994M pretax benefit from the repayment, adding $1.65 per share to net earnings.
Excluding the refund, full-year EPS guidance still came in higher than the company's previous outlook, suggesting the underlying business is genuinely improving.
Target has also cut prices on more than 10K items and opened 17 new stores in the quarter. Its stock is up more than 55% this year.
"Two strong quarters is not the goal. Sustained, durable top- and bottom-line growth over time is what we're after."
Michael Fiddelke, Target CEO
Home improvement stays frozen
Lowe's told a more cautious story. The company narrowed its full-year guidance to the bottom of its prior range, now expecting total sales of $92B and flat comparable sales for the year.
CEO Marvin Ellison said DIY customers are "on the sidelines" and will likely stay cautious in the second half.
Comparable sales rose just 0.2% in the quarter, with growth driven largely by pro and home services rather than everyday consumers picking up big projects.
Lowe's collected roughly $80M in tariff refunds, adding an 11-cent boost to adjusted earnings per share. But unlike some competitors, Ellison chose not to deploy those dollars to cut prices, saying the company didn't find it "prudent" to follow aggressive pricing moves.
He flagged "heightened competitive pressures" in July but called the pressure "transitory." Rival Home Depot separately said it sees no sign of customers returning to big projects in what it described as a "frozen housing market."
TJX's discount model shows cracks at home
TJX raised its full-year profit outlook, but its core US apparel business underwhelmed. Same-store sales at Marmaxx, the T.J. Maxx and Marshalls banner, grew just 1%, down from 3% a year ago.
The company's HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International segments picked up the slack, each delivering comparable sales increases of 6% to 7%. TJX is planning to grow its store count by 4% starting in 2027, targeting a long-term global base of 7.5K stores.
The pattern across all three retailers is consistent: shoppers are spending more selectively, trading down in some categories and pausing on big-ticket projects entirely. Tariff refunds gave several chains a one-time earnings cushion this quarter, but those windfalls won't repeat.