When to start Winter holiday shopping? About a month ago. Supply chain issues have been one of the biggest trends driving the stock market in 2021 — leading many companies to lose sales while others found opportunities…

When too much demand is a bad thing

In August, US imports increased to a record high — signaling strong consumer demand for goods like toys, clothing and electronics. Unfortunately for retailers, supply chain issues led to massive shortages in most consumer categories. So what’s causing the shortage?

• Shortage of workers across the industry, such as dock workers, truckers and warehouse workers — leading to port congestions.
• Rising COVID cases in manufacturing-heavy countries like Vietnam and China.

With global COVID cases falling again after the recent wave, analysts are expecting supply chain issues to ease starting 2022 — and return to normal by 2023. But not in time for the upcoming holiday period.

Employment is one of the biggest constraints to a recovery and so far, there’s no evidence of workers rushing back to work. And if COVID picks up again, say goodbye to those recovery plans.

Wishing won’t do ContextLogic any good

Retailers are expecting lower sales for 2021 with stock prices dragged down by:

• Product shortages — leading to lower sales.
• Higher shipping costs — resulting in increased expenses.

The list of companies impacted run long, including:

• Apple, Nike, Hasbro, Crocs, and just about every retailer you can think of have all been impacted.
• Carmakers — who rely on chips manufactured globally with a complex supply chain have been hit especially hard.

But some companies have struggled harder. E-commerce company, ContextLogic (Wish), who rely on goods shipped from China for nearly all its products, saw its shipping costs rise 393%. Its stock is down 79% since going public in 2020.

Investors: Benefiting from the crisis

According to Oppenheimer, marketplaces with third-party sellers handling their own shipping/operations stand to benefit from the supply chain crisis:

• Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) — the online marketplace for unique and handcrafted items, has 97% of sellers operating from their home.
• Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) — the luxury fashion marketplace has a network of sellers/brands across 50 states.
• Amazon (NASDAQ: ) — the everything-marketplace has invested a massive amount into its logistics network, including its own cargo airline, Prime Air.