The World Cup already has an MVP, and it’s not Ronaldo, Messi, or Cape Verde’s viral goalkeeper. With fans betting on the tournament results, Robinhood’s prediction business is set to cash in. Bernstein named it the trading platform’s “largest incremental revenue driver for 2026,” and record volumes are already making that call look smart.
- That outlook puts’s prediction market revenue at $586M this year — a 286% jump from last year as midterms and institutional participation add tailwinds.
- Industry-wide, volume grew from $12B in 2025 to $16B so far this year — with Kalshi even setting a $4.5B weekly record in the first week of June.
The full playbook: Prediction markets are just the headline. In a bid to diversify revenue, Robinhood has expanded beyond trading into wealth management, retirement accounts, and credit cards. That includes an aggressive push for market share, with its Rothera joint venture offering steep discounts. The growth comes at a cost, though, as Robinhood cut ~10% of its workforce and expects restructuring charges of ~$28M. For Robinhood, the highest-conviction trade is always on the house.
