The top-performing ETFs of 2022 all have a common theme: they’re oil & gas related. Excluding leveraged ETFs, the United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSE:UNG) is the top-performing ETF of 2022.

Don’t confuse oil for gas:

• Crude oil uses include gasoline, jet fuel and product manufacturing.
• Natural gas uses include electricity generation, heating and industrial production.

The two don’t always move in the same direction: Both prices soared after the Russian invasion — but have diverged in recent months.

• Oil prices have fallen over recession fears impacting demand.
• Natural gas prices remain elevated with a global shortage — which is even worse in Europe.

Major natural gas exporter Russia is playing a game of chicken. This week, Russia cut off European natural gas supplies unless sanctions were lifted. But doing so also risks cutting off a significant Russian revenue source.

Citigroup estimated that natural gas prices won’t return to their 2021 levels until 2025-2027 (BBG) — and that it could take several years to replace the Russian gas supply.

Brace for winter: The U.K. is capping energy bills to help with the cost of living as Europeans struggle with high utility bills. Cheniere (NYSE:LNG) — the biggest exporter of U.S. gas, has warned that winter supplies “could be really, really tight” (Reuters).

Investors: Natural gas prices could depend on how cold this winter will get, and the impact on supply could last several years.