TechJun 23, 2026
Meta Enters the Prediction Markets Race
Rhea Lobo
Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small team to build a standalone prediction markets app called Arena, putting the social media giant in direct competition with Polymarket and Kalshi.
The app is internally called Arena and would operate independently from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. Users would not wager real money at launch, with the app likely relying on a video game-like points system instead, though Meta has not ruled out real-money betting eventually.
Meta plans to seed Arena's growth by funneling users from its existing platforms, which collectively draw more than 3.56B daily visitors.
The timing is deliberate. Combined trades on Kalshi and Polymarket hit $50B in 2025, and the total has already surpassed $130B so far this year. Prediction market operators collect fees on every bet, making the model a potentially large revenue source.
Meta tried this before. In 2020 it launched Forecast, a points-based prediction app tied to Covid-era crowdsourcing, but shut it down in 2022. Since then the sector has become a cultural fixture, featured during major sports events and at the Golden Globes.
The competitive landscape is crowding fast. FanDuel, DraftKings, Gemini, Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, and Trump Media & Technology Group have all moved into event contracts. Following the Arena report, shares of Robinhood and DraftKings each declined in intraday trading.
Insiders describe Arena as experimental but a top priority. Meta declined to comment, and the company has cautioned the app may not be released.
Meta's push comes as prediction markets face intensifying legal scrutiny. In April, federal prosecutors in New York charged a US Special Forces member with using classified information to place bets on a secret operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, netting more than $400K, according to prosecutors.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees prediction markets, has shrunk under the Trump administration to its smallest staff in years, even as its workload expands.
Arena is one piece of a broader product push at Meta. The company is also testing a standalone app called Meta Photos that would use AI to generate new types of media.
Separately, Meta on Tuesday announced new smart glasses starting at $299, undercutting its own Ray-Ban models by at least $80. The glasses come in three styles, include a camera and speakers, and connect to Meta's AI assistant. Smart glasses shipments surged 167% in Q1 2026 year-over-year, with Meta holding roughly 69% of the market.
Zuckerberg's formula across both moves is consistent: find where user behavior is growing, build a product to capture it, and use Meta's existing audience as a distribution engine.
