McDonald's will provide about $8.5B in support to franchisees through 2036 under its NEXT strategy, with about $5B of that coming by 2030.
The money is mostly rent relief and capital support across more than 46K restaurants. Management expects the spending to deliver about 250 basis points of restaurant-level efficiency gains, or roughly $100K in extra annual cash flow for the average US restaurant.
By 2030, McDonald's is aiming for operating margins in the low-to-mid 50% range and 1.5 percentage-point share gains in both chicken and beverages, while holding its lead in beef.
Why chicken and drinks
Chief executive Chris Kempczinski laid out the math plainly, noting chicken is a $130B category where McDonald's holds about 20% share, and beverages a $230B category where it holds about 10%.
Compare that with the $50B global beef category, where the company already has about 40% share.
McNuggets alone generate about $15B in annual systemwide sales and grew 40% over the past five years, while McChicken brings in about $4B and McCrispy $2.5B. New chicken strips, expanded McWings, and grilled sandwiches are on the menu roadmap.
Hand-breaded chicken already works across 10K restaurants in Asia and is being tested in Chicagoland, where taste and quality scores rose by double digits. US advertising starts in 2027.
On drinks, the McCafe platform added refreshers, energy drinks, and dirty sodas, now live in about 18K restaurants. More than half of beverage-led visits happen after lunch, and those visits carry an average check about 50% higher because customers add food.
The competition is already there
The chains winning the most spending from McDonald's own diners specialize in exactly those two categories, per card-transaction data from Consumer Edge.
Chick-fil-A gained 0.58 percentage points of limited-service restaurant spending among McDonald's customers in the third quarter, the biggest gain of any chain.
Drive-thru coffee chain 7 Brew added 0.4 points. Starbucks, Dutch Bros, and Dunkin' also made the top 10, and the four coffee chains together picked up 0.88 points.
Burger King, owned by Restaurant Brands International, added 0.24 points, the largest gain among burger chains. McDonald's remains the biggest chain in customer spending, though its share slipped from a year earlier.
"There's a big battle for a smaller amount of restaurant spend."
Michael Gunther, Consumer Edge
US comparable sales were slightly negative in July and August, with September expected to turn positive. Share declines narrowed across every income group that month.
Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo flagged that beverage launches haven't offset broader weakness and the next chicken platform is further out than expected. He rates the stock market perform and warned the required investment introduces near-term earnings pressure.
The payoff sits in 2027 and beyond, when drinks scale into Europe and hand-breaded chicken hits US airwaves.
