Wholesale used-vehicle prices rose 0.7% in the first 15 days of October versus September, lifting the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 207.4.
The index sits 2.2% above October 2025, a rebound after softer prices through the third quarter.
Supply did the work, not shoppers. Wholesale days supply slipped from 28.7 to 28.2 days, and Cox Automotive described the firmer values as a reflection of leaner inventory rather than stronger buying.
Not every corner moved together. Compact cars climbed 5.6% year over year, non-electric values rose 0.7%, and electric vehicles slipped 0.7% in the same stretch.
Used-Vehicle Market Snapshot (as of mid-October 2026)
| Metric | Latest value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index | 207.4 index points | +0.7% vs September |
| Wholesale days supply | 28.2 days | down from 28.7 days |
| Compact car wholesale values | — | +5.6% year over year |
| EV wholesale values | — | -0.7% in first half of October |
| Average retail listing price | $27,235 | +6% year over year |
| Total retail inventory (September) | 2.21M units | +3.3% year over year |
| Retail days supply (September) | 49 days | sales pace -6.3% vs August |
| Sub-$15,000 inventory share | 15.7% | supply -16.2% year over year |
Cheap cars are the squeeze point
Average retail listing prices reached $27.2K in September, the highest since 2022 and up 6% from a year ago.
Total retail inventory hit 2.21M units, up 3.3% year over year, with days supply rising to 49 as the sales pace slowed 6.3% from August.
The budget end tells a different story. Vehicles priced under $15K carry just 34 days supply, 15 days below the industry average.
Supply in that band fell 16.2% year over year and now makes up only 15.7% of all listings.
Cox Automotive credits a larger pool of younger used vehicles and better credit access for keeping the retail market steady despite economic headwinds.
Dealers are the trade investors can touch
Bank of America upgraded CarMax ($KMX) to Buy from Underperform, raising its price target to $65 from $50.
The call leans on better pricing competitiveness plus a Federal Trade Commission rule requiring all-in price transparency, which the bank says accounts for ~half of CarMax's relative pricing gain.
Comparable used-unit sales at CarMax rose 13% in the latest quarter against a 2% industry decline.
Second-quarter earnings per share came in at $1.16, beating consensus by 60%, on revenue of $7.88B, up 19.5%.
The business stays thin, with roughly 1% net margins and $20B in debt, and it's capital-intensive by design. CarMax is priced 0.3% above the market average, while Carvana sits 1.2% below. A strategy update from CarMax is scheduled for Nov. 3.
