MarketsJul 23, 2024
Kamala Harris’s Unexpected Entrance Into the 2024 Presidential Race Is Shaking Up Markets — And Volatility
Trump Trade
Noah Weidner
Discover
The last few weeks have shown that America didn’t just fall out of a coconut tree but exists in the context of all in which it lives and what came before it. Because of that, prediction markets and Wall Street were positioning for a second Donald Trump presidency — with President Joe Biden viewed as a long shot after several high-profile missteps. But this weekend, everything changed.
Kamala-mentum: On Sunday, Joe Biden announced he would not seek reelection — and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to run in his place. With dozens of high-profile endorsements and over $100M raised, Harris secured the delegates needed to clinch the nomination. Although it’s still early, this surprising shift is making many investors reconsider the Trump trade, which was already en vogue before Biden’s withdrawal.
Coconut-Pilled
For now, investors seem to be staying aboard the Trump Train, with Ritholtz’s Callie Cox noting that “either there’s too much uncertainty or markets don’t think this changes the outcome very much.” With a new Democrat on the ticket, the real problem for investors is calculating what priorities would be top-of-mind in a Harris presidency.
Volatility advisory: With only 103 days until the presidential election, investors have little time to predict the future. Despite prediction markets like Polymarket still favoring Trump, the path to Election Day may be rocky. Bloomberg suggests that the Democrats’ late change is likely to bring volatility to the markets — with safe-havens like treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin all rising as Harris enters the race.
