Cutting the gas bill got a lot more literal this year. The IEA expects global demand to drop 0.5% in 2026, the first annual decline since 2022, as the war in Iran drove global prices higher. Buyers can find alternative fuels faster than exporters find new customers — and that shortfall isn’t closing anytime soon.

• The supply shock choked off roughly a fifth of global LNG supply — pushing European and Asian gas benchmarks up by 40% to 70% since fighting began.
• Even worse, a delayed recovery threatens the first global supply drop since 2012 — amid fresh attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.

Diverging fates: Brent crude has fallen 42% from its wartime peak, back to pre-war levels, as optimism priced in a lasting US-Iran deal. Gas isn’t recovering the same way, and that sustained pressure is already threatening India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam — once projected to be gas' biggest growth markets. For exporters counting on those countries, demand may not return. After all, some breakups just are permanent.