The biggest blockchain upgrade — the Ethereum Merge — is expected to arrive in three weeks ~September 15, with significant implications onETH

’s price. It’s been tested on three test networks, and next up, the upgrade on the main network.

Is the Merge priced in?

We’ve already covered its potential impact onETH

’s price here and here. Today, we look at whether the Merge is priced in.

What does it mean to be “priced in”? Here’s an example:

• If investors expect a company to report strong earnings, they’ll buy in before the earnings date — “pricing in” the event.
• If the earnings are as expected, the stock shouldn’t move as much since investors already bought the “priced in” stock.

Ethereum is up 80%+ from its June bottom, but most assets have also gone up with signs of slowing inflation.

With the broad market viewing the Merge as bullish onETH

’s already rising price, is the event already priced in?

That depends….

1/ How many actually expect the Merge to occur? Many investors have been skeptical about the September Merge date — with the upgrade being constantly delayed for nearly six years.

2/ How much buying will come from mainstream media coverage? If not all investors believe the Merge will happen, how much FOMO buying will there be as we approach the date? A better question is how much institutional capital is waiting on the sidelines.

Ethereum’s co-founder Vitalik Buterin said in a July 27 Bankless interview that the Merge isn’t priced in and won’t be until after it happens. A fair share of investors are likely worried about the risks (covered below) and won’t be entering until after it happens.

Investors: No shortage of Merge bulls

Director of Research at Arca, Katie Talati, thinks, “this is an event that a lot of people are undercounting, especially based on current price appreciation” (CoinDesk). Her bullish view is widely shared in the industry.

Ex-Morgan Stanley associate Hal Press has raised a $30M crypto hedge fund “almost solely” investing in Ethereum’s Merge. In this in-depth interview with Bankless, Press shares his thoughts on whether the Merge is priced in.