Bitcoin survived the banks, the bans, and the bros — now it’s got a quantum-sized worry. New research from Google suggests quantum machines could break blockchain cryptography with far fewer resources than expected — potentially enough to break the encryption securing bitcoin and other blockchains.

Breaking the code: Google’s latest work suggests the barrier to cracking elliptic curve cryptography is falling faster than expected. A powerful enough system could complete the task in minutes while using roughly 20x fewer resources than earlier projections. At the core is a “fast-clock” setup that could crack a private key in about nine minutes — just under Bitcoin’s typical 10-minute block interval. As Alex Pruden put it, that impact forces a complete rethink of the threat model, putting every transaction in the blast radius.

• Craig Gidney sees a 10% chance of a relevant quantum system by 2030, while Google is targeting 2029 to move to post-quantum security.
• The shift brings urgency, with around 6.7M BTC potentially exposed and a projected $16T tokenization market at risk by 2030.

The Vulnerability Window Narrows

The convergence of advances in quantum computing and blockchain security has created what amounts to a ticking time bomb for the cryptocurrency sector. Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn told Sherwood News,  “The distance between today and that eventual ‘Q-day’ may be easier to traverse than previously thought.” The threat reaches beyond bitcoin itself, extending to the broader foundation of blockchain-based finance, with the protocols supporting real-world asset tokenization particularly at risk.

• Bitcoin is trading around $67K, still over 45% below its $126K peak, with March breaking a five-month slide with a modest 2.2% gain.
• Whale holders who bought roughly 200K BTC during the 2024 rally have been selling since mid-2025, a trend that has historically aligned with extended price weakness.

No escape route: Google’s whitepaper urges an immediate move to quantum-resistant cryptography and shows how to validate the findings without giving bad actors a roadmap, after working with US authorities. The issue is that Bitcoin still doesn’t have a clear plan to make that shift. Simultaneously, demand isn’t holding up — with net demand falling by about 63K BTC last month. With the way things are moving, quantum threats may arrive before Bitcoin figures out how to defend itself.