Prediction Markets Are Eating Crypto’s Lunch One Perpetual at a Time
Prediction markets built their empires on forecasting the future — now they want to trade it. Kalshi is set to debut crypto-linked perpetual futures in the coming weeks, its first move beyond event contracts. The shift comes as trading volume slumped in Q1 amid a broader market downturn, while prediction market activity surged, creating a vacuum that platforms are racing to fill.
- Perpetual futures offer built-in leverage with no expiry, making them the dominant product on offshore venues like Binance and Hyperliquid, while largely unavailable to US traders.
- Soon after Kalshi’s announcement, Polymarket followed with its own perpetual futures launch and a ~$15B raise, bringing crypto-style leverage into prediction markets.
The convergence play: CoinbaseCOIN, Crypto.com, and Gemini have rolled out prediction markets, while Kalshi and Polymarket push into leveraged crypto — bringing the two markets together. Kalshi’s margin license clears the way for perpetuals, with plans to expand into commodities and add stablecoins as early as Q2. CFTC Chair Michael Selig indicated perpetual futures could soon fall under US oversight — putting the race for dominance on notice.