Hyundai is expected to outsell Ford in the US for the first time in any quarter, according to a Cox Automotive forecast released Thursday.
The South Korean automaker, which includes Kia and Genesis, is forecast to post a 6.5% increase in year-over-year sales to 511,421 units from July through September.
Cox predicts Ford will fall 7.1%. That would push Hyundai into third place in the US market, behind General Motors and Toyota.
Detroit's hybrid gap is costing it share
Cox analysts pin the shift on hybrids, a segment growing fast as drivers face a AAA national average of $4.48 per gallon. Hybrid market share climbed to 16% from 13% over the past three months, roughly one in six new vehicle sales.
GM sells a hybrid only in its Corvette line, so it's missed out on the broader hybrid rally. Ford's hybrid range covers the Maverick and F-150 pickups.
Ford's problems run deeper than powertrains. Two supplier fires last year disrupted F-Series production, the company discontinued the Escape, and it deliberately pulled back from rental fleet volume. Hyundai absorbed much of that rental volume, Keating said.
Asian automakers are on track to take more than half of US new vehicle sales for a second straight quarter. Detroit 3 brands are forecast to slip to just over 36% market share, the lowest on record. GM is still expected to lead the quarter, with sales down 5.2%.
Toyota is predicted to gain 2.2% to 642,707, trailing GM by fewer than 121,100 units for the year. If Toyota finishes ahead, it would be only the second time it has outsold GM in annual US sales, after 2021.
The overall market is stronger than forecast
Cox raised its full-year US sales outlook, citing a surprisingly strong August and more available credit. Keating attributes part of the strength to a shift toward what she calls affordable luxury, with buyers picking Hyundai and Kia over traditional premium badges.
"The automotive market this year has been pretty resilient."
Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive
Stellantis is expected to post a 1.3% third-quarter decline, with full-year sales up 2.8% under its turnaround plan. Hyundai CEO José Muñoz has downplayed the Ford milestone as a target.
Muñoz has bigger worries. He recently warned that Chinese automakers could surge into the US without tariffs and market-access conditions. Chinese cars run 30% to 40% cheaper in some European markets, he noted.
Hyundai has also pushed its in-house driver-assistance software launch to late 2029 from late 2027, leaning on an Nvidia partnership for 2028 models. Third-quarter results will confirm whether the ranking actually flips.
