Halloween Spending Is Set to Hit a Record. Why Candy Makers Aren’t Celebrating

Halloween is getting more expensive, but candy makers may have finally pushed shoppers too far. After years of passing higher cocoa costs onto consumers, manufacturers are still raising prices, even as candy sales decline. Americans are expected to spend a record $13.5B on Halloween this year, but a bigger holiday budget is not translating into bigger candy sales.

Candy prices are getting harder to swallow

MondelezMDLZ, the maker of Sour Patch Kids and Swedish Fish, raised gummy pack prices by 39%, while Ferrero increased chocolate pack prices by nearly 19%. A 100-piece bag of assorted Halloween candy now averages $16.96, up 71% from 2021.

The increases go well beyond one holiday. Candy and gum prices have climbed 44% over the past five years, nearly double the increase in overall grocery prices. At Aldi, a smaller Mars variety pack now costs $19.87, roughly what shoppers paid for a much larger bag five years ago.

HersheyHSY has also faced criticism for replacing some chocolate in seasonal Reese’s products with cheaper ingredients to protect margins. The company plans to restore the original recipes in 2027, although shoppers may have already developed a taste for buying less.

Shoppers are cutting back

Higher prices are starting to show up in sales. NielsenIQ data shows Halloween candy sales fell 6.7% in the month through Oct. 17, following an even steeper decline in September. Smaller bags were the only category still growing, while large and extra-large packs saw the steepest declines.

Even cheaper treats are struggling. Gummies and lollipops averaged $6.08 per pound, down roughly 3% from last year, but the discount failed to lift sales. Higher gasoline prices are also squeezing household budgets, leaving less room for another expensive grocery aisle.

Hershey is feeling the pressure. The company lowered its full-year organic sales forecast to around 3% after third-quarter organic sales rose just 0.8%. CEO Kirk Tanner warned that tighter household budgets could influence last-minute purchases.

To keep shoppers interested, Hershey is introducing new pack sizes and products alongside heavier marketing. The challenge is convincing consumers to buy more without giving up the margins that higher prices were meant to protect.

The sweet and spooky divide

The frustrating part for consumers is that cocoa itself has become considerably cheaper. Prices reached a record $10.71K per metric ton in January 2025 before falling sharply to $3.24K in March.

Yet those savings have barely reached store shelves. Manufacturers are still using cocoa purchased when prices were much higher, delaying the benefit of falling commodity costs.

The relief could also prove temporary. El Niño threatens cocoa production through February, while higher transportation costs add another expense. Grocery analyst Phil Lempert expects Halloween prices to keep climbing through 2027 and potentially 2028.

Still, Americans aren't giving up Halloween. They are simply spending more of their budgets elsewhere.

Costumes are expected to generate $4.4B in spending, followed by decorations at $4.3B. Candy trails both categories, despite more Americans planning to celebrate this year.

Home improvement retailers are taking a different approach to pricing. Home DepotHD has maintained its popular 12-foot skeleton at $299, while Lowe’sLOW has discounted its giant version to $215.

That creates an interesting contrast. Candy makers are charging more for smaller bags, while retailers selling giant skeletons are holding or cutting prices to attract customers.

Some candy shoppers are also turning to AmazonAMZN for cheaper alternatives, although fewer consumers plan to shop online for Halloween this year.

How to play it

Halloween spending is still growing, but consumers are becoming more selective about where it goes. For investors, Home Depot and Lowe’s offer exposure to a category attracting more holiday spending, although seasonal promotions alone are unlikely to move their overall earnings.

Hershey and Mondelez face a tougher balancing act. Lower cocoa costs could eventually support margins, but falling candy volumes suggest another round of price increases may do more harm than good.

Both stocks look more like holds until demand stabilizes and cheaper cocoa starts improving profitability. Halloween is still big business, but candy makers are learning that shoppers have a limit to how much they will pay for a treat.