EconomyJun 17, 2026
G7 Summit: The Three Biggest Decisions That Could Shape Markets in the Months Ahead
Geopolitical Shifts
Rhea Lobo
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The G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains concluded on June 17 with agreements that could ripple across global markets. The measures included support for an Iran ceasefire framework, a coordinated push on critical mineral supply chains, and new voluntary AI commitments.
The US and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding that calls for an immediate end to military operations on all fronts. Iran commits to never producing nuclear weapons, and the US commits to dropping its embargo and working to terminate all sanctions.
Once the MOU is formally signed, the US Treasury Department will issue waivers allowing Iran to export crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, along with all associated banking and insurance services.
Because other countries avoided Iranian oil under US sanctions, China had been buying it at a steep discount. A senior US official said it was absurd to sanction Iranian oil in a way that still allowed sales, effectively giving China a discount on every barrel.
The agreement also outlines a $300B reconstruction fund for Iran, to be funded by Gulf state partners rather than the US. That fund is contingent on Iran honoring the deal's terms, particularly on the nuclear issue.
The MOU opens a 60-day negotiating window for a final deal.
Separately, G7 leaders agreed that no single country should supply more than 60% of their rare earth and permanent magnet imports by 2030. The implicit target is China.
Beyond 2030, leaders aim to reduce that threshold further to 50%. Specific targets for other critical minerals are expected by year-end, and a shared platform for recycling and new mining projects is planned.
A 2025 International Energy Agency (IEA) report found China controlled roughly 70% of refining processes for the majority of critical minerals.
China produces 85% of processed cobalt. It produces 99% of primary gallium. Japan, despite years of effort after a 2010 export ban, still sources ~75% of its rare earth imports from China.
Meeting the 2030 deadline is widely viewed as a stretch. Many mining projects face funding gaps, regulatory delays, and technical setbacks.
Chiefs of leading frontier AI companies attended the G7 working lunch alongside heads of state.
Attendees included OpenAI's Sam Altman, Anthropic's Dario Amodei, and Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis, along with roughly a dozen other executives.
Amodei and Hassabis called for a US-led international coalition to set AI rules and standards. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney indicated support for US leadership on the issue.
The meeting carries added urgency because the Trump administration recently imposed export controls on Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, citing national security concerns. That move alarmed other G7 nations, which had assumed continued access to US AI infrastructure.
G7 nations had long assumed that sovereign AI investment would still come with access to the US tech stack, but the export controls signaled a willingness to cut off even treaty allies from certain AI capabilities, says Emerson Brooking of the Atlantic Council.
The expected outcome is a package of voluntary commitments covering youth safety, frontier model risks in cyber and bioterrorism, and standards for testing. Those pledges are likely to become the baseline for global AI governance in the near term.
