Wall Street isn't ready to give up on gold. Deutsche Bank strategist Michael Hsueh says gold remains in an "explosive price behavior" phase that began in Aug. 2024, reiterating a year-end target of $4.6K an ounce. The metal was trading around $4.1K an ounce, though it remains down 5% year to date.

• Deutsche Bank's fair-value model projects gold at $4.7K by year-end, slightly above its $4.6K target, based on the S&P 500, the 10-year Treasury yield, and exchange rates.
• Gold ended a five-month losing streak in July with a 1% gain, as Iran-Hormuz talks boosted optimism that energy-driven inflation could ease.

The macro headwinds: Gold is down more than a fifth since the US-Iran war began, with elevated energy prices pushing inflation higher and keeping rate-hike fears alive, a direct drag on a non-yielding asset. Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodities research Samantha Dart noted the environment is "a little bit better" for gold following the Fed's decision to hold rates steady. Hsueh's own bubble-detection model suggests gold should have peaked at $6.4K and bottomed near $3.7K, putting its current level sits well within a recoverable range.