Cox Automotive cut its full-year forecast for the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to a 0.2% gain, down from the 2% increase it projected in July.
The index landed at 205.9 in September, down 0.6% from a year earlier and 1.1% from August after adjusting for mix, mileage, and seasonality. It was the first time since March 2025 that the monthly index failed to beat the prior year.
Non-adjusted wholesale prices fell 1.2% year over year and 1.3% from August as third-quarter depreciation picked up speed.
Fuel prices are splitting the market in two
The national average for regular gas hit $4.33 per gallon in September, 50 cents above the previous September record set in 2023.
Diesel peaked at a record $6.527 per gallon on Sept. 22, raising costs for freight, delivery, and anyone hauling a work truck.
Buyers responded by chasing efficiency. Since January, non-electric used vehicles rated at 40-plus mpg gained 9.9% in wholesale value, while those under 15 mpg lost 15%.
Electric vehicle values rose 4.3% annually in September, with EV sales and off-lease volume both growing.
Fuel efficiency split used-vehicle values (as of September 2026)
Note: Electric vehicle figure reflects year-over-year change; other figures reflect changes since January 2026.
Bar chart. % Change. 40+ MPG: % Change in Wholesale Value 9.90%. Electric Vehicles: % Change in Wholesale Value 4.30%. <15 MPG: % Change in Wholesale Value -15%.
Large trucks and SUVs went the other way, posting the quarter's weakest results.
Auction floors confirm the trend
Wholesale values kept softening in the week ending Oct. 13, though the pace of decline eased slightly.
Car segments slipped 0.53% while truck and SUV segments dropped 0.75%, against a historical average of 0.39%.
All 13 truck segments declined, with minivans the weakest at a 0.98% drop and a 10-week average decline of 1.07% per week.
Auction conversion held steady at 56%, and used retail days-to-turn sat near 34 days, signs that buyers are still bidding but only for the right cars.
"We are in the weakest season for wholesale valuations."
Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive
Robb noted the first half of the year showed more appreciation than usual, even with fuel prices already elevated.
Higher interest rates and broader economic pressure compounded the September slide.
For shoppers, a used pickup is getting cheaper by the week while a used hybrid keeps getting more expensive. For dealers and lenders holding truck-heavy inventory, the math is moving the wrong way.
