The holiday shopper is splitting in two: splurging on a few prized purchases while hunting for deals on everything else. Harley-Davidson keeps finding buyers for $46K trikes, while Costco and Walmart stack up value hunters, so both ends of the barbell are working at once. Diageo is the caution: a premium label is no shield. The holiday quarter will test how long both ends keep paying.
Where household budgets are splitting
Spending by high-income US consumers is growing 2.5% year-over-year versus 0.5% to 1% for low- and middle-income households, according to the Macro Foresight analysis from Accenture. Shoppers overall plan to spend an average of $737 this holiday season, while Accenture's Luxury Indulgers plan to spend $956.
Luxury holiday plans exceed the average
Accenture 2026 planned US holiday spending, dollars, as of Nov. 6, 2026
Bar chart. Average planned holiday spend ($). All shoppers: Average planned holiday spend ($) $737. Luxury Indulgers: Average planned holiday spend ($) $956.
Source: Source: Accenture 2026 Holiday Shopping Survey via WNY Asset Management
Value hunting isn't the same as cutting back. Deloitte counts 38% of shoppers as value seekers who use five or more cost-saving tactics, and they expect to spend 12% more than other shoppers. For these shoppers, bargain seeking can coexist with a bigger basket.
Shopper timing matters, too. Deloitte says 22% plan to start earlier than last year. That makes the coming quarter a test of who captures planned spending, not just whose customers report bigger budgets.
Harley sells joy at the high end
Harley has posted year-over-year retail sales growth in North America for four straight quarters, and management expects its first full-year increase since 2021. Take one buyer, a retired Indiana pipe fitter. He paid $46K for a limited-edition three-wheeled Street Glide, after selling his camper and trading in another Harley.
The premium story comes with asterisks. Harley added mid-tier models like the Super Glide, around $16K, and dealers lean on rebates and financing rates as low as 1.99%. Next year brings a Sprint 440 under $6K. So the comeback rests on new products and cheap financing, as well as a willingness to indulge.
Premium pricing isn't a shield
Diageo shows the limits of the luxury thesis. The spirits group said on Nov. 5 that US sales fell 3.7% in the July to September quarter, its fiscal first quarter. Chief executive Dave Lewis flagged Crown Royal, Smirnoff, and Captain Morgan as the brands losing market share — they're getting fresh marketing money, and that spending needs up to 12 months to show up in sales.
Expensive Don Julio and Casamigos also booked sharp declines, which undercuts the idea that high price points are automatically safe. Diageo's brand turnaround deserves its own scrutiny rather than a place in a blanket premium-consumer trade.
Value retail keeps compounding
Costco reported October net sales of $24.5B for the four weeks ended Nov. 1, up 12.6% from $21.75B. Companywide comparable sales, which track sales at existing stores, rose 11.1%, or 7.3% excluding gasoline prices and currency swings, which is the cleaner test of underlying sales momentum. Digitally enabled sales grew 22.5% YoY.
Costco comps strengthened into the holiday quarter
Reported total comparable sales growth, YoY percent, 2026, as of Nov. 6, 2026
Line chart. Total comparable sales growth (%). August: Comp Sales Growth 8.40%. September: Comp Sales Growth 11.40%. October: Comp Sales Growth 11.10%.
Source: Source: Costco monthly sales report via Zacks on Yahoo Finance
Walmart is investing in convenience. Its new multiyear agreement with Zipline, announced Nov. 5, adds 300 drone delivery sites on top of the 21 active sites the pair run today. This delivery-speed contest is a different route to winning shoppers than lowering shelf prices, but whether or not faster delivery will pay off is still an open question.
What the holiday quarter settles
For value retail, the risk is that promotions trade revenue growth for margin. The holiday quarter will test whether splurges and savings can produce durable earnings. Watch sales alongside profitability: a bigger basket means less if winning it requires giving away the margin.
