The US Department of Commerce issued a preliminary dumping ruling finding that Mexico sold winter strawberries in the US at prices between 3.37% and 5.28% below normal value, with an average margin of 4.83%.
The case was filed Dec. 31, 2025, by Strawberry Growers for Free Trade, a coalition of Florida producers who claim Mexican imports undercut their prices during the winter harvest season.
Mexico pushed back immediately, calling the ruling a matter of "serious concern" and arguing it contradicts both WTO anti-dumping rules and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
Mexico exported 263K metric tons of strawberries to the US in 2025, worth $1B, supporting roughly 5K growers and 151K linked jobs.
For American shoppers, the timing matters. 98% of US strawberry imports come from Mexico, and the US leans hardest on those imports during winter when domestic production slows.
What a tariff could actually cost you
The Florida coalition originally petitioned for an 18.32% tariff, claiming Mexican strawberries are priced that far below fair market value. The preliminary finding came in well below that, at 4.83% on average.
Experts caution the pass-through to consumers may not be one-to-one. Mexican exporters could trim their own margins rather than raise prices, and importers may absorb part of the hit.
"The Mexican exporters could reduce the price, in which case, the full 18.32% wouldn't necessarily hit American consumers."
Marc Busch, Georgetown University
But if exporters instead cut planting in anticipation of tariffs, supply tightens regardless of the final rate. James Mann, a partner at Kearney, said that Mexican growers are already reducing some planting in response to tariff uncertainty, which could push prices higher between November and early spring.
The tomato market offers a cautionary comparison. After the US imposed a roughly 17% anti-dumping duty on most Mexican tomatoes recently, tomato prices rose 12.8% year-over-year. Weather and freezing temperatures in Florida also contributed, making it hard to isolate the tariff's effect.
The Italian pasta case shows outcomes aren't locked in at the preliminary stage. Commerce initially proposed duties as high as 92% before settling on rates below 10% after reviewing additional data from pasta makers.
A final determination in the strawberry case isn't expected until early 2027, with the International Trade Commission issuing the concluding ruling. Mexico said it will monitor the process alongside its producers and exporters until then.
For now, the preliminary 4.83% margin is far below what Florida growers wanted, but the supply-side response from Mexican farmers may move grocery prices before any final tariff does.