Wall Street's bonus machine is running at full throttle. Big banks are on pace for a record $180B in trading revenue, fueling what compensation consultant Johnson Associates is officially calling the "Year of the Bank." Goldman SachsGS

and JPMorgan ChaseJPM

both reported blowout Q2 results, with Goldman's EPS nearly doubling year-over-year.

• Equity traders and IPO bankers are projected to see bonuses jump as much as 30%, the highest gain of any Wall Street category in 2026.
• Private credit professionals could see bonuses drop as much as 10%, while large PE firms lag the banks with only a 2.5%–7.5% projected increase.

The AI divide: A PwC survey found that 8 in 10 financial services executives expect workforces to shrink by at least 20% over the next five years. But those who remain could be paid far more, with M&A bankers and senior executives projected to receive 17.5% bonus growth. Johnson Associates' Alan Johnson expects the strong pay environment to continue through the second half as deal backlogs remain healthy and the economy stays resilient.