There are about two and a half weeks left until the 2024 election — but speculators are confident they already know who will win: The Donald. Despite Harris leading by 2.4% in the polling average maintained by FiveThirtyEight, Duquesne Family Office CEO Stanley Druckenmiller, who backed competing candidate Nikki Haley in the Republican primary, says that the market is now “very convinced” it’ll be Trump who takes the Oval Office.
Trump Trade 2.0: Speculators on predominantly right-leaning betting markets like Polymarket have given the former president an even more commanding lead — with his odds of winning up to 61% on Thursday. Wall Street’s barometer on the former president is also looking up — Trump Media ($DJT) has nearly doubled over the last month after collapsing in the preceding months. Detached from fundamentals, has become a volatile way for investors to speculate on Trump’s odds. And right now, everything is going up and to the right — we’ll have to see if their predictions play out at the ballot box.
Prediction Market Competition Heats Up as Revenue Figures Climb
