Sometimes the best policy is no policy at all. The US has pulled as much as 2M tons of copper onshore, per BMO Capital Markets, without announcing a single tariff on the refined metal. Some analysts now suspect the ambiguity is the plan, and everyone else is paying for the suspense.
- The stockpiling traces to last July, when Trump tariffed wire and other copper products, then ordered a study on refined metal that still hasn’t produced a verdict.
- Deutsche Bank’s metals lead expects the US and China to lock up about 70% of global inventories by year-end — and sees an outlier 50% surge to $10/lb next year.
Late to the party: Even with prices approaching record highs, copper equities haven’t caught up to the metal. Scotiabank says miners are priced at only a 2% premium to spot copper, well below the 17% three-year average, and flags First Quantum and Lundin Mining as particularly undervalued, with Anglo American and Freeport-McMoRan as potential re-rating candidates. The bank expects the market to stay tight through the end of 2027, so there’s plenty of time for the stocks to catch up.
