The US goods trade deficit widened 2.1% in September to $134.9B, the largest shortfall since March 2025, the Commerce Department reported this week.
Economists had expected the gap to narrow. A Bloomberg survey put the median estimate at $130.2B, and a Reuters poll landed on the same number.
Goods imports rose $8.1B to $344.1B, the highest level on record. Exports climbed $5.3B to $209.2B, a five-month high.
The US Goods Trade Gap Has Widened Three Months Running
Advance goods trade deficit, $B, July to September 2026
Line chart. Deficit ($B). July 2026: Goods Trade Deficit ($B) $119. August 2026: Goods Trade Deficit ($B) $132. September 2026: Goods Trade Deficit ($B) $135.
The September reading marked the fourth widening in five months, up from $132.1B in August and $118.9B in July.
Capital goods imports are driving the gap
Imports of capital goods excluding autos jumped 7.5%, the single biggest contributor. The category covers computers, semiconductors, and telecom gear feeding the artificial intelligence buildout.
Consumer goods imports rose 3.1%. Purchases of industrial supplies fell 6%, autos dropped 4%, and foods, feeds, and beverages slipped 2.5%.
On the export side, food, feed, and beverage shipments rebounded 12.8%, with capital goods up 5.4%.
The pattern echoes August's 13.8% jump in the trade deficit, when AI equipment and oil flooded in despite tariffs.
Trade is subtracting from GDP while investment grows
Imports count against gross domestic product, so a wider gap mechanically drags on the headline number. Trade hasn't added to growth for three straight quarters.
Some economists figured trade cut as much as four percentage points from third-quarter growth. First Trust put the hit at 3.2 percentage points and still estimated the economy grew at a 3.3% annual rate.
The same spending driving imports shows up elsewhere in the data. First Trust estimates nominal data center spending ran up at a 139% annual rate in the third quarter, with business fixed investment growing 12.3% and consumption 3.7%.
"Although trade will weigh on quarterly GDP, this is a sign of strength rather than weakness."
Daniel Vielhaber, Nationwide
Economists polled by Reuters forecast third-quarter GDP growth at a 3.2% annualized rate ahead of the advance estimate.
Growth concentrated in semiconductors and data centers means the rest of the economy is moving far slower, and the record import bill is largely a receipt for chips and servers bought abroad.
