The receipts are in, and they’re eye-watering. Columbia professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh warns America’s AI titans need revenue to grow 80% every year through 2032 to justify the $10.3T buildout, a bet already bigger than the canals, railroads, and power grid combined. This time, it’s funded by debt so opaque even the Fed is watching closely.
- Van Nieuwerburgh’s math traces back to a specific target — $3.7T in annual AI revenue by 2032, vs. ~$100B combined revenue at OpenAI and Anthropic today.
- “This is freaking complicated,” he says, pointing to a web of bank and private-credit debt — a run-up he likens to the subprime mortgage crisis.
Red flags: Miss that target, and the leverage ripples straight through the special purpose vehicles holding the debt. Investors got a taste this week, as Oracle triggered force majeure on Blue Owl’s data center, positioning itself to defer payments after regulators blocked a needed gas pipeline. Investors didn’t wait around, sending both stocks lower Thursday. The facility isn’t due online until 2028, leaving plenty of time for more cracks to show.
